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Game Recap
CBJ2
MIN3
MIN beat CBJ 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 2.96. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 17:51MINM. Boldy0.02 xG
- 2nd 2:00CBJK. Johnson0.13 xG
- 2nd 16:35MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.17 xG
- 3rd 9:58MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 17:06CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.10 xG
Team Stats
CBJMIN
33Shots on goal26
2.96Expected goals2.13
63Shot attempts43
225v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play1/3
21Hits17
8Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways11
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.96 xGMIN 2.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:05 | 1:58 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 | 1:58 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:27 | 1:58 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:35 | 1:58 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:38 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:38 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:38 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:10 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:10 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:38 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:10 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:56 | 2:08 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:38 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:10 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 58:38 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:43 | 3:35 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:52 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:33 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:03 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 3:19 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:43 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:44 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:04 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:09 | 0:04 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:45 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:04 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:34 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:57 | 3:28 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22:14 | 0:04 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:48 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.8, MIN 3.9 | CBJ 2, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 28.5, MIN 36.1 | CBJ 33, MIN 26 |
| Win chance | MIN 66% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 4.7 | 3 | 1.54 | 1 | 52% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.8 | 3 | 1.07 | 3 | 36% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.6 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 3.1 | 2 | 1.11 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.0 | 7 | 0.73 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.2 | 4 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.7 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.6 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.