Game Recap: CBJ 7, MIN 4, October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ7

FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

MIN4

CBJ beat MIN 7-4 despite fewer good chances: 4.12 expected goals to 4.86. MIN outshot CBJ 52 to 32. K. Marchenko scored three for CBJ. K. Kaprizov had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. E. Merzlikins stopped 48 of 52.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	2	4	7
MIN	0	2	2	4

1st 2:29CBJM. Wood0.20 xG
2nd 0:07CBJK. Marchenko0.05 xG
2nd 6:18MINM. BoldyPP0.72 xG
2nd 8:24MINK. KaprizovPP0.11 xG
2nd 18:48CBJK. Marchenko0.23 xG
3rd 1:11CBJZ. Werenski0.13 xG
3rd 3:01CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.17 xG
3rd 9:54MINZ. BuiumPP0.18 xG
3rd 10:47CBJA. Fantilli0.06 xG
3rd 15:49MINK. KaprizovPP0.11 xG
3rd 18:34CBJB. JennerEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

CBJMIN

32Shots on goal52

4.12Expected goals4.86

64Shot attempts85

175v5 shots on goal32

1/3Power play4/8

16Hits18

16Blocked shots19

12Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways13

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 4.12 xGMIN 4.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ31 on goal, 7 scored

MIN51 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	3	0	3	4	1	1	+2	2	18:10	2:41
B. Jenner	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+3	0	15:11	2:41
D. Voronkov	LW	0	2	2	1	2	1	+2	4	15:01	1:41
A. Fantilli	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:20	1:57
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:39	1:38
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	14:07	0:16
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	13:27	0:00
M. Wood	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	11:11	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	+3	0	19:11	3:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:02	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:18	2:41
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:21	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	2	3	7	1	1	+4	0	25:20	2:41
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+3	0	27:12	1:38
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:13	0:19
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	0	17:49	1:57
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:21	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	4	11:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	52	48	4	.923	60:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	2	3	5	0	0	-3	0	25:24	7:31
K. Kaprizov	LW	2	1	3	11	1	0	-3	0	24:13	8:47
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	-1	2	19:20	7:15
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	-3	0	19:21	3:06
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	5	0	1	-1	0	16:18	7:46
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:26	2:24
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	7	1	3	-1	0	16:02	3:38
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	12:52	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:56	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	9:29	2:49
H. Haight	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	8:17	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	6:55	0:00
Z. Buium	D	1	1	2	4	0	2	-4	0	24:39	8:23
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	19:32	0:10
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-3	0	18:31	2:19
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	16:57	0:10
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	15:08	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	14:34	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	31	25	6	.806	58:40	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:18D. Voronkov13:18S. Monahan12:43

Line 2Z. Aston-Reese9:23I. Lundestrom10:55M. Wood9:36

Line 3A. Fantilli12:19B. Jenner8:56C. Sillinger11:53

Line 4C. Coyle7:51K. Johnson8:31M. Olivier8:43

Pair 1D. Severson15:47I. Provorov15:41

Pair 2Z. Werenski18:56D. Fabbro14:33

Pair 3E. Gudbranson8:09D. Mateychuk13:18

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov14:06M. Boldy15:35M. Rossi13:54

Line 2M. Johansson13:02Y. Trenin11:53R. Hartman12:15

Line 3M. Foligno9:42J. Ek8:38V. Tarasenko7:12

Line 4H. Haight8:17V. Hinostroza6:40L. Ohgren6:55

Pair 1J. Brodin14:51B. Faber16:48

Pair 2Z. Bogosian13:04J. Middleton13:54

Pair 3J. Spurgeon14:08Z. Buium14:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, MIN 3.3	CBJ 7, MIN 4
Total goals	6.3	11
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.3, MIN 30.0	CBJ 32, MIN 52
Win chance	MIN 54%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.8	11	1.32	3	47%	2
MIN M. Boldy	3.8	5	1.11	3	37%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.5	2	0.79	2	31%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	7	0.78	3	15%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.7	7	0.61	0	25%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	4	0.65	3	26%	3
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	2	0.54	3	25%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	1	0.54	2	24%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	6	0.66	0	21%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	5	0.57	1	23%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.8	2	0.46	0	11%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	3	0.37	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	1	0.42	2	19%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.7	2	0.26	1	12%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	2	0.60	0	20%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.6	1	0.40	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	0	0.35	1	13%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.46	0	16%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.5	0	0.46	0	21%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	1	0.37	1	7%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.4	0	0.31	0	8%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.4	1	0.27	0	12%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.4	3	0.48	1	19%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.4	0	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.4	3	0.31	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	2	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.2	0	0.24	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.32	0	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	2	0.22	0	12%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.1	1	0.35	1	14%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.1	1	0.18	1	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.30	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.0	4	0.30	2	7%	1
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.