Game Recap: CBJ 1, MIN 2, October 18, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ1

FinalSun, Oct 18, 2026Every game that night

MIN2

MIN beat CBJ 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 1.34. MIN outshot CBJ 34 to 14. Z. Bogosian had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Wallstedt stopped 13 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	0	0	1
MIN	1	1	0	2

1st 18:12MIND. Yurov0.09 xG
1st 19:12CBJA. Fantilli0.07 xG
2nd 3:06MINK. KaprizovPP0.08 xG

Team Stats

CBJMIN

14Shots on goal34

1.34Expected goals4.46

39Shot attempts66

85v5 shots on goal30

0/2Power play1/4

29Hits16

8Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways18

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.34 xGMIN 4.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ15 on goal, 1 scored

MIN34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	21:18	3:10
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	17:02	0:48
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	19:55	3:15
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	19:41	3:10
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:52	3:07
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	18:04	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	16:33	0:50
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:37	0:47
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	11:21	0:53
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:15	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:45	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:23	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	28:43	3:32
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	23:23	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	19:54	0:28
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:47	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	14:19	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	34	32	2	.941	58:00	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	22:32	4:42
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	21:18	4:36
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:57	0:29
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:32	4:46
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	12:40	0:01
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	2	21:50	5:01
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:27	0:38
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:06	0:10
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:08	0:33
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	11:28	0:00
R. Lorenz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	8:22	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	8:16	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	25:21	5:24
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	22:54	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	2	21:08	0:09
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:25	0:00
D. Spacek	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:06	0:31
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	14	13	1	.929	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Knies15:52A. Fantilli16:05K. Johnson15:02

Line 2C. Coyle13:38M. Olivier15:34C. Sillinger12:50

Line 3S. Monahan12:07V. Nichushkin12:14C. Garland10:07

Line 4R. Lomberg7:23L. Belluz7:45D. Heinen7:26

Pair 1D. Severson19:42Z. Werenski20:28

Pair 2D. Mateychuk18:01J. Christiansen15:19

Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:20C. Soucy11:07

MIN

Line 1J. Ek14:57K. Kaprizov15:55M. Boldy15:04

Line 2B. Coleman13:50R. Hartman12:35B. Brink15:56

Line 3Y. Trenin10:46D. Yurov12:12M. Shabanov8:31

Line 4T. Pitlick8:16M. McCarron9:16R. Lorenz8:22

Pair 1J. Brodin18:43Q. Hughes19:57

Pair 2Z. Bogosian18:00D. Hunt16:16

Pair 3M. Kiersted12:02D. Spacek12:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+120	-145	5	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+100	-105	6	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+130	-155	3	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-135	+108	2	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+105	-130	3	Over
MIN B. Brink	1.5	+120	-155	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-160	+135	2	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-120	+100	2	Over
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+120	-145	1	Under
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	+120	-160	4	Over
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	+100	-130	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-150	+125	2	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	+115	-130	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-140	+115	1	Under

2 of 32 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+370	-600	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
CBJ D. Heinen	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+105	-130	1	Over
CBJ L. Belluz	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+400	-700	0	Under
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under

4 of 20 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+370	-500	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+145	-155	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+215	-240	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+200	-235	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-230	+180	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+265	-300	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+295	-350	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over

5 of 20 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+150	-180	1	Under
MIN M. Boldy	1.5	+196	-230	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+160	-190	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+118	-135	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+180	-245	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+205	-280	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+195	-225	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-145	+140	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+160	-185	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+150	-170	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-155	+135	1	Over

3 of 16 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+290	-450	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+160	-215	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+260	-450	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+180	-180	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CBJ C. Talbot	27.5	-106	-125	32	Over
MIN J. Wallstedt	23.5	-105	-120	13	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MIN J. Brodin	2.5	+135	-190	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayKent Johnson CBJ Turns 24 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, MIN 3.5	CBJ 1, MIN 2
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.9, MIN 29.5	CBJ 14, MIN 34
Win chance	MIN 62%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.8	6	1.18	0	41%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	3	0.98	1	21%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	5	1.32	1	46%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.1	2	0.86	1	31%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	2	0.72	1	28%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	3	1.19	0	19%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.3	2	0.54	0	24%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	2	0.54	0	22%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.9	2	0.52	0	19%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.8	1	0.54	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	2	0.63	0	21%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.7	0	0.66	0	24%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	0	0.51	1	18%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	0	0.38	0	13%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.6	0	0.40	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	1	0.37	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	1	0.46	0	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.4	0	0.52	1	17%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	0	0.30	0	13%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.4	0	0.47	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.4	1	0.36	0	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.29	1	13%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	4	0.41	1	17%	1
MIN D. Spacek	1.1	1	0.16	0	5%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	0	0.12	0	2%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.13	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.9	3	0.25	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	4	0.19	0	5%	0
CBJ C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	1	0.14	0	6%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.7	0	0.18	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.