Game Recap: CBJ 1, MTL 2, March 26, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ1

FinalThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night

MTL2

MTL beat CBJ 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.14 expected goals to 3.23. Z. Bolduc led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Dobes stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	0	0	1
MTL	1	0	1	2

1st 9:54MTLJ. Struble0.11 xG
1st 12:17CBJD. Severson0.11 xG
3rd 4:36MTLZ. Bolduc0.14 xG

Team Stats

CBJMTL

26Shots on goal20

3.23Expected goals2.14

62Shot attempts41

245v5 shots on goal16

0/1Power play0/2

27Hits24

8Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways8

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.23 xGMTL 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ26 on goal, 1 scored

MTL20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	13:53	0:33
I. Lundestrom	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:12	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:47	1:27
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:45	0:33
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	18:36	1:29
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	18:35	1:27
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:20	1:27
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:43	0:31
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:47	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:33	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:49	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	8:47	0:00
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:23	0:33
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	27:21	1:32
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	21:34	0:28
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	20:36	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	15:04	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	20	18	2	.900	58:38	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	1	2	2	3	1	+2	0	13:51	0:52
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	2	18:56	0:07
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:38	3:01
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	19:24	3:01
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:48	3:01
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:15	3:01
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:32	0:59
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+2	0	16:12	0:07
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:52
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:40	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:15	0:52
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	7:00	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	+1	0	21:24	0:07
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	19:45	3:01
J. Struble	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	24:45	0:59
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	20:50	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:05M. Marchment14:49A. Fantilli14:40

Line 2C. Garland14:00S. Monahan15:13D. Heinen12:33

Line 3M. Olivier12:43C. Sillinger11:35C. Coyle9:45

Line 4B. Jenner11:57I. Lundestrom10:39M. Wood8:47

Pair 1D. Severson19:39Z. Werenski22:59

Pair 2I. Provorov16:25D. Fabbro14:14

Pair 3E. Gudbranson16:46D. Mateychuk11:21

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský15:17N. Suzuki15:01C. Caufield14:07

Line 2J. Evans16:31J. Anderson14:04Z. Bolduc12:59

Line 3O. Kapanen12:50I. Demidov13:27A. Newhook14:21

Line 4B. Gallagher7:23J. Veleno7:00P. Danault8:52

Pair 1M. Matheson19:26N. Dobson20:53

Pair 2K. Guhle17:25A. Carrier15:18

Pair 3J. Struble12:05L. Hutson16:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, MTL 3.3	CBJ 1, MTL 2
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.2, MTL 27.3	CBJ 26, MTL 20
Win chance	MTL 52%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.1	1	0.93	0	19%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.90	0	36%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	2	0.81	0	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	4	0.74	0	28%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	0	0.80	0	27%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	1	0.62	0	15%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	1.03	0	29%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	3	0.70	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	0	0.70	0	22%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.7	1	0.46	1	20%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.42	0	13%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	3	0.43	1	10%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	2	0.56	0	19%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	0	0.72	0	19%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	3	0.90	1	13%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	2	0.42	2	18%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	2	0.34	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	1	0.40	0	18%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	0	0.33	0	14%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.4	1	0.41	0	19%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	2	0.44	1	10%	1
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	2	0.39	0	15%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	1	0.32	0	16%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	0	0.42	1	15%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	2	0.39	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	1	0.24	0	11%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	0	0.32	0	9%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.2	1	0.39	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	0	0.30	0	13%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.20	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.9	3	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	0	0.20	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.30	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.21	1	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.8	1	0.28	0	8%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.5	2	0.19	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.