Game Recap: CBJ 5, MTL 2, April 11, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ5

FinalSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

MTL2

CBJ beat MTL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.79 expected goals to 2.65. CBJ outshot MTL 33 to 22. C. Coyle led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Coyle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Greaves stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	2	2	1	5
MTL	1	0	1	2

1st 1:13CBJB. Jenner0.29 xG
1st 5:42CBJC. Coyle0.28 xG
1st 11:48MTLJ. Anderson0.23 xG
2nd 1:24CBJK. Marchenko0.09 xG
2nd 10:36CBJS. Monahan0.16 xG
3rd 3:58MTLC. CaufieldPP0.05 xG
3rd 9:59CBJC. CoylePP0.22 xG

Team Stats

CBJMTL

33Shots on goal22

4.79Expected goals2.65

68Shot attempts48

235v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play1/4

15Hits22

11Blocked shots18

12Penalty minutes12

17Giveaways14

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 4.79 xGMTL 2.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ32 on goal, 5 scored

MTL22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	2	0	2	6	0	0	+1	0	21:53	5:14
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	4	1	1	+1	0	17:12	4:57
A. Fantilli	C	0	2	2	0	2	1	+1	2	15:41	3:30
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	2	18:24	0:31
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	15:23	2:14
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	15:16	5:02
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	10:12	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:12	1:49
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	17:23	0:14
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:38	0:07
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	10:52	1:44
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:35	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	25:42	5:18
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	25:30	1:35
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	4:18	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:36	1:33
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	20:22	0:22
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+2	2	19:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	18:53	5:11
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-2	0	18:40	5:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:22	4:51
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	-1	0	14:46	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:47	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14:57	3:37
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:44	2:03
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:42	3:11
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	8	2	0	0	13:37	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:45	0:13
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:34	1:49
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	12:11	1:54
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	26:43	5:21
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	20:21	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	19:44	0:00
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:21	1:05
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	6	16:24	0:23
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:57	0:37

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	33	28	5	.848	60:00	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli11:23K. Marchenko11:27I. Lundestrom12:28

Line 2C. Coyle11:17C. Sillinger14:45C. Garland9:08

Line 3B. Jenner15:01M. Marchment10:11D. Heinen9:39

Line 4S. Monahan9:34K. Johnson7:23M. Wood7:35

Pair 1Z. Werenski18:47D. Fabbro17:00

Pair 2I. Provorov17:12D. Mateychuk16:03

Pair 3E. Gudbranson13:54J. Christiansen4:18

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki12:18J. Slafkovský12:21C. Caufield11:39

Line 2J. Evans11:03J. Veleno10:20J. Anderson10:28

Line 3A. Texier10:31O. Kapanen10:40I. Demidov11:17

Line 4K. Dach9:37A. Newhook10:22P. Danault9:29

Pair 1A. Xhekaj17:01A. Engstrom14:52

Pair 2J. Struble16:18L. Hutson16:37

Pair 3M. Matheson13:13N. Dobson8:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, MTL 3.4	CBJ 5, MTL 2
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.8, MTL 27.5	CBJ 33, MTL 22
Win chance	MTL 54%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	4	0.94	1	20%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	1	0.97	1	38%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	0	0.75	2	29%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	4	0.83	2	31%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	4	0.86	1	28%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	0	0.63	0	16%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	2	1.08	1	29%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	0	0.69	1	26%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.8	3	0.47	1	21%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.8	4	0.85	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	6	0.66	2	22%	2
MTL L. Hutson	1.7	0	1.03	1	15%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	1	0.46	0	11%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	2	0.33	1	8%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	2	0.48	0	20%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	4	0.51	1	18%	1
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	1	0.39	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	4	0.37	0	13%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.5	0	0.42	0	19%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	2	0.40	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.30	1	16%	1
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	1	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.2	1	0.34	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.34	0	11%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.36	0	13%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.37	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	0	0.30	1	14%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.21	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	0.8	1	0.13	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	1	0.08	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	1	0.21	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	0	0.07	1	1%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.