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Game Recap
CBJ1
NSH2
NSH beat CBJ 2-1, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 2.78. K. Marchenko had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Saros stopped 38 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 6:45NSHM. Bunting0.10 xG
- 1st 16:01CBJD. Voronkov0.07 xG
- 3rd 2:41NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
CBJNSH
39Shots on goal32
2.78Expected goals2.83
71Shot attempts60
325v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play1/4
28Hits22
15Blocked shots19
10Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways17
5Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.78 xGNSH 2.83 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:44 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:37 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:03 | 1:15 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:58 | 1:14 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:45 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:46 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:16 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:23 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:16 | 1:27 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:27 | 0:33 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 58:48 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 3:58 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:55 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:38 | 2:09 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 3:59 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 4:28 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:06 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 2:09 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:16 | 0:09 |
| B. Martin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:44 | 2:07 |
| J. Kemell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 1:37 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:07 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 3:57 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:05 | 2:17 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:07 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 39 | 38 | 1 | .974 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1D. Voronkov14:37K. Marchenko13:40S. Monahan13:28
Line 2B. Jenner13:31A. Fantilli14:05C. Sillinger12:28
Line 3C. Coyle11:38M. Olivier13:22K. Johnson11:22
Line 4M. Wood9:29Z. Aston-Reese8:23I. Lundestrom9:32
Pair 1Z. Werenski20:56D. Fabbro13:21
Pair 2I. Provorov17:38D. Severson19:12
Pair 3E. Gudbranson12:05D. Mateychuk14:08
NSH
Line 1R. O'Reilly13:37F. Forsberg14:13B. Martin10:37
Line 2M. Bunting13:29J. Marchessault13:14E. Haula12:00
Line 3C. Smith12:42M. McCarron12:25T. Jost11:28
Line 4F. Svechkov10:15J. Kemell10:08S. Stamkos11:48
Pair 3S. Stastney13:54J. Barron14:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.1, NSH 3.3 | CBJ 1, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.5, NSH 31.7 | CBJ 39, NSH 32 |
| Win chance | NSH 54% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.5 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.9 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.6 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 8 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.3 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 2.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.2 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.6 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.5 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.