Game Recap: CBJ 2, NYI 3, November 2, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalSun, Nov 2, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat CBJ 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.69 expected goals to 2.71. NYI outshot CBJ 39 to 22. M. Schaefer led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Romanov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Rittich stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	1	1	2
NYI	1	0	2	3

1st 5:53NYIM. SchaeferPP0.08 xG
2nd 15:21CBJM. Wood0.10 xG
3rd 12:10CBJD. Mateychuk0.15 xG
3rd 18:53NYIM. Schaefer0.01 xG
3rd 19:22NYIS. Holmstrom0.43 xG

Team Stats

CBJNYI

22Shots on goal39

2.71Expected goals4.69

45Shot attempts69

165v5 shots on goal34

0/4Power play1/2

26Hits10

13Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways16

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.71 xGNYI 4.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ22 on goal, 2 scored

NYI38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	17:44	4:42
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:18	4:17
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:32	1:49
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:53	2:16
M. Wood	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:01	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	19:14	2:22
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:23	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	9	1	-1	0	17:18	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	2	16:33	4:19
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:06	4:12
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:45	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:08	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	13:01	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	27:06	4:42
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	24:20	1:57
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	2	23:43	2:39
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	16:43	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	39	36	3	.923	59:22	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:28	0:49
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:48	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:47	0:44
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:32	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	5	1	1	+1	0	15:56	0:26
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	16:12	0:49
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:19	0:11
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	14:24	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:28	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:45	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:30	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	17:24	0:48
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-1	2	21:38	0:13
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	21:34	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	20:42	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:08	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	18:43	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	22	20	2	.909	59:46	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier16:59C. Sillinger16:52C. Coyle14:43

Line 2B. Jenner12:58A. Fantilli14:43M. Wood11:25

Line 3K. Marchenko12:24S. Monahan11:35D. Voronkov11:36

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese9:08I. Lundestrom10:31K. Johnson7:54

Pair 1D. Severson19:45I. Provorov21:16

Pair 2Z. Werenski20:13D. Mateychuk12:51

Pair 3D. Fabbro16:02J. Christiansen10:40

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat14:58M. Barzal14:26E. Heineman13:30

Line 2J. Drouin14:12C. Ritchie13:56K. Palmieri12:34

Line 3J. Pageau12:39S. Holmstrom12:50A. Lee15:16

Line 4C. Cizikas8:45K. MacLean9:28A. Duclair8:30

Pair 1A. Pelech16:49R. Pulock16:09

Pair 2A. Romanov18:11T. DeAngelo17:17

Pair 3S. Mayfield16:41M. Schaefer15:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, NYI 3.6	CBJ 2, NYI 3
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.8, NYI 33.7	CBJ 22, NYI 39
Win chance	NYI 59%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.5	2	0.94	1	38%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	2	0.80	0	15%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.9	3	1.03	0	27%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.8	5	0.63	1	28%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.8	1	0.77	1	32%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.7	3	0.57	2	12%	2
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	2	0.70	1	27%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	0	0.57	1	24%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	1	0.49	1	23%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	1	0.70	1	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	3	0.52	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	2	0.56	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.39	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.7	1	0.27	1	13%	1
NYI A. Duclair	1.7	0	0.47	0	24%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	3	0.59	0	20%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	3	0.46	0	23%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.77	0	19%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	1	0.31	0	16%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	3	0.31	0	4%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.5	4	0.27	0	6%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	2	0.58	1	23%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.35	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.37	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.46	0	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	2	0.48	1	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	3	0.32	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.36	0	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	3	0.32	1	8%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.26	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.