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Game Recap
CBJ0
NYI1
NYI beat CBJ 1-0, with the chances close: 2.30 expected goals to 1.72. C. Sillinger had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:25NYIB. Horvat0.09 xG
Team Stats
CBJNYI
26Shots on goal22
1.72Expected goals2.30
51Shot attempts53
245v5 shots on goal18
0/0Power play0/3
24Hits24
16Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes0
14Giveaways16
1Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.72 xGNYI 2.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:00 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 57:55 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 4:07 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 2:45 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 4:08 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:57 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:49 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 3:50 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:54 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 3:15 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:02 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:43 | 4:10 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 1:51 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:12 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 26 | 26 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko19:09A. Fantilli18:33M. Marchment17:09
Line 2C. Coyle12:31M. Olivier12:15C. Sillinger14:35
Line 3S. Monahan10:05C. Garland10:34K. Johnson10:59
Line 4B. Jenner11:06D. Heinen9:34I. Lundestrom9:03
Pair 1D. Severson21:47Z. Werenski26:33
Pair 2I. Provorov18:24D. Fabbro11:53
Pair 3E. Gudbranson11:37D. Mateychuk13:48
NYI
Line 1A. Lee14:53B. Horvat14:44E. Heineman14:15
Line 2B. Schenn12:45M. Barzal13:31C. Ritchie9:39
Line 3C. Cizikas12:39K. MacLean12:25M. Gatcomb12:15
Line 4S. Holmstrom14:53J. Pageau12:24O. Palat11:11
Pair 1M. Schaefer20:28A. Pelech18:38
Pair 2T. DeAngelo20:32C. Soucy18:55
Pair 3S. Mayfield13:25A. Boqvist12:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.0, NYI 2.9 | CBJ 0, NYI 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 28.4, NYI 28.0 | CBJ 26, NYI 22 |
| Win chance | CBJ 51% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.3 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.1 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.7 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.5 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.4 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 2.0 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.9 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 5 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Soucy | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.