Game Recap: CBJ 5, NYR 4 (OT), March 2, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ5

Final/OTMon, Mar 2, 2026Every game that night

NYR4

CBJ beat NYR 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.93 expected goals to 2.95. G. Perreault led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). G. Perreault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. E. Merzlikins stopped 29 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CBJ	2	2	0	1	5
NYR	0	0	4	0	4

1st 5:50CBJA. Fantilli0.08 xG
1st 15:32CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.12 xG
2nd 3:27CBJS. MonahanSH0.22 xG
2nd 11:54CBJM. Olivier0.07 xG
3rd 0:30NYRV. Gavrikov0.20 xG
3rd 0:54NYRG. Perreault0.08 xG
3rd 12:52NYRW. Borgen0.82 xG
3rd 15:14NYRG. Perreault0.19 xG
OT 1:04CBJK. Marchenko0.21 xG

Team Stats

CBJNYR

29Shots on goal33

2.93Expected goals2.95

51Shot attempts65

255v5 shots on goal31

1/1Power play0/1

15Hits27

21Blocked shots13

2Penalty minutes0

13Giveaways10

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.93 xGNYR 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ29 on goal, 5 scored

NYR31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	2	1	3	4	0	0	0	0	18:04	0:58
A. Fantilli	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	0	17:55	0:58
C. Coyle	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	0	0	17:13	0:58
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:03	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	2	3	2	-1	0	16:09	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:13	0:58
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	16:37	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:06	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:01	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:11	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	0	0	21:59	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	27:10	0:58
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	21:06	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	22:18	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	14:54	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	29	4	.879	61:04	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
G. Perreault	RW	2	1	3	6	0	0	+1	17:18	0:47
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	20:43	1:13
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	19:23	1:15
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+2	19:17	0:47
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	18:51	1:13
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	5	3	3	0	20:11	1:13
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	13:20	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:19	0:45
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:38	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	11:28	0:00
B. Brisson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	9:46	0:44
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	8:14	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	1	2	3	8	1	+3	17:37	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	25:22	0:47
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	26:16	1:13
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+3	19:03	0:03
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	16:21	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	29	24	5	.828	60:49	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko16:18A. Fantilli15:53M. Marchment16:15

Line 2B. Jenner16:37D. Heinen15:06S. Monahan15:34

Line 3M. Olivier15:51C. Sillinger14:46C. Coyle14:47

Line 4I. Lundestrom9:37D. Voronkov9:59M. Wood9:27

Pair 1I. Provorov23:31D. Severson21:36

Pair 2E. Gudbranson20:03D. Mateychuk20:51

Pair 3D. Fabbro14:54E. Zamula12:50

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck18:08W. Cuylle17:50A. Lafrenière17:38

Line 2M. Zibanejad17:45J. Miller16:59G. Perreault15:52

Line 3T. Kartye13:20N. Laba12:34C. Sheary11:38

Line 4T. Raddysh11:28B. Brisson9:02S. Carrick8:14

Pair 1V. Gavrikov23:12A. Fox24:24

Pair 2W. Borgen17:22B. Schneider18:24

Pair 3M. Robertson15:43V. Iorio14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayCharlie Coyle CBJ Turns 34 that day2 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, NYR 3.1	CBJ 5, NYR 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	CBJ 29.2, NYR 27.0	CBJ 29, NYR 33
Win chance	CBJ 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.9	5	0.98	0	32%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	4	0.77	3	28%	2
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	2	0.70	2	26%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.3	2	1.05	1	32%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	3	0.84	1	27%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.1	3	0.93	0	17%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	3	0.52	1	22%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.70	0	25%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	1	0.63	1	24%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	1	0.49	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	3	0.65	2	21%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.7	2	0.43	1	12%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.41	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	0	0.42	2	9%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	4	0.57	1	18%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	2	0.32	1	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	2	0.27	0	8%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	6	0.34	3	15%	2
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.39	1	16%	1
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	0	0.32	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.3	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.3	1	0.27	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.3	1	0.34	0	15%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.2	3	0.22	2	7%	1
CBJ D. Heinen	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.30	1	9%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	2	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR B. Brisson	1.0	1	0.29	0	9%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR V. Iorio	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.