SJS beat CBJ 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.57 expected goals to 4.32. CBJ outshot SJS 50 to 27. F. Zetterlund led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Danforth had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. V. Vanecek stopped 49 of 50.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 18:49SJSJ. Thompson0.05 xG
- 3rd 9:17CBJK. Marchenko0.38 xG
- OT 3:11SJSA. Wennberg0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 4.32 xGSJS 1.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:56 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:58 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:28 | 4:01 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 4:02 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 2:07 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:54 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:58 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:02 | 2:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 31:26 | 4:06 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29:16 | 1:58 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 62:51 | OT loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:09 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:13 | 4:05 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 3:51 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 4:14 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:11 | 3:35 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 4:15 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 3:30 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:12 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 3:39 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:42 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 0:12 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:02 | 0:12 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:25 | 4:17 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:07 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 50 | 49 | 1 | .980 | 63:03 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.6, SJS 3.2 | CBJ 1, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 32.1, SJS 30.3 | CBJ 50, SJS 27 |
| Win chance | CBJ 56% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 3.1 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.4 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.4 | 1 | 0.59 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.3 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.3 | 4 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.3 | 5 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.6 | 6 | 0.54 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.5 | 6 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.4 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D.Jiricek | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.