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Game Recap
CBJ2
STL1
CBJ beat STL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.66 expected goals to 2.90. A. Fantilli had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Greaves stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 15:38CBJA. Fantilli0.21 xG
- 2nd 16:51CBJC. SillingerPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:48STLC. ParaykoPP0.02 xG
Team Stats
CBJSTL
30Shots on goal32
1.66Expected goals2.90
50Shot attempts73
245v5 shots on goal25
1/2Power play1/3
14Hits22
23Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes4
8Giveaways19
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.66 xGSTL 2.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 3:03 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:59 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:41 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 3:03 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:41 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:41 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 3:03 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:03 | 0:04 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 28:14 | 3:03 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 0:41 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:41 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 2:03 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:16 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 3:15 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:09 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:52 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:17 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:46 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:20 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:20 | 1:47 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 | 2:35 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:40 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:39 | 2:40 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 55:59 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.1, STL 3.6 | CBJ 2, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 28.8, STL 30.6 | CBJ 30, STL 32 |
| Win chance | STL 59% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.9 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.4 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.9 | 6 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 5 | 1.04 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.