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Game Recap
CBJ3
STL5
STL beat CBJ 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 1.81. D. Holloway led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Binnington stopped 20 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 16:10CBJV. Nichushkin0.38 xG
- 1st 19:48CBJK. Johnson0.06 xG
- 2nd 6:10STLJ. Neighbours0.28 xG
- 2nd 9:02STLJ. Snuggerud0.14 xG
- 2nd 12:32STLJ. Snuggerud0.02 xG
- 3rd 6:51CBJC. Sillinger0.22 xG
- 3rd 9:33STLJ. Berggren0.45 xG
- 3rd 19:17STLP. BuchnevichEN0.65 xG
Team Stats
CBJSTL
23Shots on goal27
1.81Expected goals4.01
48Shot attempts58
225v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play0/1
17Hits12
19Blocked shots8
7Penalty minutes9
23Giveaways20
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.81 xGSTL 4.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:22 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:38 |
| K. Johnson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:37 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:35 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:22 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:23 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:38 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:25 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28:13 | 0:38 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 24:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:22 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 58:46 | Loss |
| C. Talbot | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:41 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:39 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 18:15 | 0:41 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:19 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:19 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:41 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:07 | 1:19 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 1:19 |
| Z. Dean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:02 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:46 | 1:19 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:50 | 0:41 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:56 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Johnson14:35A. Fantilli15:41M. Knies13:58
Line 2S. Monahan15:29V. Nichushkin13:49D. Voronkov11:14
Line 3C. Coyle12:37M. Olivier11:52C. Sillinger13:54
Line 4D. Heinen11:49R. Lomberg9:34C. Garland13:30
Pair 1Z. Werenski24:27D. Severson22:28
Pair 2E. Gudbranson17:29J. Christiansen12:48
Pair 3D. Mateychuk17:28C. Soucy10:48
STL
Line 1C. McMichael15:53M. McTavish16:41J. Berggren16:23
Line 2R. Thomas15:08J. Snuggerud14:29D. Holloway14:30
Line 3P. Buchnevich12:25J. Neighbours12:41D. Dvorsky10:47
Line 4R. Johnston9:06Z. Dean9:51P. Suter9:57
Pair 2C. Parayko19:37J. Barron15:28
Pair 3A. Jiricek15:04P. Broberg19:25
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
8 of 17 overs hit (47%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | +118 | -140 | 1 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.5 | -115 | -105 | 3 | Over |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.5 | -115 | -105 | 3 | Over |
| STL M. McTavish | 2.5 | +140 | -174 | 4 | Over |
| STL A. Jiricek | 1.5 | -120 | -105 | 3 | Over |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.5 | -120 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.5 | -185 | +125 | 1 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 1.5 | -125 | +105 | 1 | Under |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | +105 | -135 | 1 | Under |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | +105 | -135 | 1 | Under |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | -105 | -140 | 2 | Over |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | -125 | -105 | 3 | Over |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.5 | +105 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.5 | -105 | -105 | 2 | Over |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.5 | -135 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.5 | -110 | -135 | 1 | Under |
| CBJ V. Nichushkin | 1.5 | -135 | +120 | 4 | Over |
7 of 31 overs hit (23%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL A. Jiricek | 0.5 | +650 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| STL B. Carlo | 0.5 | +2200 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 0.5 | +370 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +750 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Garland | 0.5 | +450 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +350 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. Parayko | 0.5 | +1100 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 0.5 | +650 | -800 | 1 | Over |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 0.5 | +480 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 0.5 | +850 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | +200 | -270 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.5 | +800 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ D. Severson | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 0.5 | +400 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 0.5 | +2200 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Berggren | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 1 | Over |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +360 | -650 | 1 | Over |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | +210 | -285 | 2 | Over |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 0.5 | +340 | -440 | 1 | Over |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +260 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 0.5 | +525 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +350 | -500 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Suter | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Johnston | 0.5 | +1400 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ R. Lomberg | 0.5 | +1300 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 0.5 | +400 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ V. Nichushkin | 0.5 | +370 | -500 | 1 | Over |
| STL Z. Dean | 0.5 | +950 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 0.5 | +370 | -500 | 0 | Under |
7 of 19 overs hit (37%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL A. Jiricek | 0.5 | +175 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 0.5 | +225 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +215 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Garland | 0.5 | +220 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +255 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 0.5 | +270 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | +140 | -190 | 3 | Over |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.5 | +225 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Berggren | 0.5 | +215 | – | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +235 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | +165 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 0.5 | +225 | -290 | 0 | Under |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +245 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +225 | -375 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +245 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | -111 | -106 | 1 | Over |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 0.5 | +295 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| CBJ V. Nichushkin | 0.5 | +255 | -340 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 0.5 | -135 | +112 | 1 | Over |
12 of 18 overs hit (67%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL A. Jiricek | 0.5 | +130 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 0.5 | +115 | -132 | 1 | Over |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +165 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Garland | 0.5 | +115 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +125 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 0.5 | +160 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | -150 | +120 | 3 | Over |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.5 | +170 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +145 | -155 | 1 | Over |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | -120 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 0.5 | +125 | -145 | 1 | Over |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +105 | -120 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +125 | -135 | 1 | Over |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | -180 | +155 | 1 | Over |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 0.5 | +155 | -165 | 1 | Over |
| CBJ V. Nichushkin | 0.5 | +132 | -160 | 1 | Over |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 0.5 | -180 | +165 | 1 | Over |
0 of 18 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL A. Jiricek | 0.5 | +320 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 0.5 | +360 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ C. Garland | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | +280 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | +350 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 0.5 | +320 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +380 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | +270 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ V. Nichushkin | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 0.5 | +260 | -280 | 0 | Under |
0 of 2 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Binnington | 24.5 | -110 | -110 | 20 | Under |
| CBJ J. Greaves | 23.5 | -130 | +100 | 22 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, STL 3.0 | CBJ 3, STL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.9, STL 26.6 | CBJ 23, STL 27 |
| Win chance | STL 53% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.6 | 1 | 1.03 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.6 | 3 | 0.81 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.5 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| STL M. McTavish | 2.1 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL C. McMichael | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 0 | 1.02 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Knies | 1.7 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ V. Nichushkin | 1.7 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL Z. Dean | 1.2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL J. Barron | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 3 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL R. Johnston | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.