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Game Recap
CBJ5
TBL2
CBJ beat TBL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 1.98. CBJ outshot TBL 32 to 18. C. Garland led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Garland had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. E. Merzlikins stopped 16 of 18.
Team Stats
CBJTBL
32Shots on goal18
3.72Expected goals1.98
51Shot attempts47
255v5 shots on goal12
2/4Power play0/3
21Hits29
15Blocked shots8
13Penalty minutes15
16Giveaways11
9Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 3.72 xGTBL 1.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:44 |
| C. Garland | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:39 | 1:34 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:36 | 5:17 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:00 | 5:42 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:39 | 5:18 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:32 | 1:39 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 5:20 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:39 | 0:03 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:02 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:32 | 0:06 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 7 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 | 5:33 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:05 | 1:28 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:09 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:10 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 59:29 | Win |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 5:11 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:49 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:22 | 0:36 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 2:13 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:33 | 4:59 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:16 | 5:16 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 3:47 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 1:01 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 4:45 |
| J. Moser | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 9 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:34 | 1:15 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:08 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 59:51 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1B. Jenner13:13D. Heinen12:09I. Lundestrom11:22
Line 2K. Marchenko12:47A. Fantilli12:50C. Sillinger10:02
Line 3M. Marchment13:01M. Olivier11:37C. Coyle10:39
Line 4S. Monahan10:15K. Johnson10:53C. Garland10:05
Pair 1I. Provorov16:20D. Mateychuk17:06
Pair 2Z. Werenski17:09D. Fabbro14:33
Pair 3D. Severson15:46J. Christiansen11:48
TBL
Line 1A. Cirelli11:37B. Hagel13:01N. Kucherov14:53
Line 2J. Guentzel11:46B. Point13:21G. Goncalves10:46
Line 3Y. Gourde11:29Z. Girgensons10:07P. Holmberg9:02
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand11:02C. Geekie9:31C. Perry12:00
Pair 1R. McDonagh15:52C. D'Astous21:06
Pair 2D. Carlile17:03J. Moser14:42
Pair 3V. Hedman14:56S. Santini9:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.9, TBL 4.0 | CBJ 5, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 27.1, TBL 30.8 | CBJ 32, TBL 18 |
| Win chance | TBL 66% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 0 | 0.80 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 1 | 1.76 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.9 | 1 | 1.03 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 2 | 1.08 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.5 | 5 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 0 | 1.05 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL C. Perry | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.7 | 5 | 0.52 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.6 | 6 | 0.40 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.