Game Recap: CBJ 3, VAN 4, November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ3

FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat CBJ 4-3, with the chances close: 3.45 expected goals to 3.93. CBJ outshot VAN 32 to 24. K. Marchenko led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Voronkov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. K. Lankinen stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	2	1	3
VAN	0	2	2	4

2nd 5:28VANJ. DeBrusk0.21 xG
2nd 6:46CBJK. Marchenko0.02 xG
2nd 13:02CBJD. Voronkov0.28 xG
2nd 19:03VAND. O'Connor0.41 xG
3rd 6:17VANC. Garland0.15 xG
3rd 9:47CBJK. Marchenko0.05 xG
3rd 14:15VANB. Boeser0.08 xG

Team Stats

CBJVAN

32Shots on goal24

3.93Expected goals3.45

70Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play0/3

15Hits20

11Blocked shots16

21Penalty minutes10

10Giveaways10

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.93 xGVAN 3.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ32 on goal, 3 scored

VAN24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	2	1	3	4	1	1	+1	0	19:25	5:16
D. Voronkov	LW	1	2	3	5	0	0	+1	0	15:26	5:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	2	2	5	1	2	+1	0	16:58	2:02
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	20:01	5:03
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:26	0:44
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	18:08	0:04
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	15:14	0:58
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:00	0:13
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	13:40	5:16
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:08	0:04
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:26	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15	7:36	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	22:23	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	29:27	5:17
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:24	0:43
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:24	0:39
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	14:46	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	7:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	24	20	4	.833	58:03	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. O'Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	15:12	0:14
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	20:52	3:26
C. Garland	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	20:41	3:30
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	17:43	3:01
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:13	3:28
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-2	0	16:04	4:15
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	2	13:11	0:33
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	12:09	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	20:41	4:13
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:33	2:59
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:55	3:26
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:14	0:12
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	27:22	5:09
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	2	23:13	2:58
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	20:37	0:05
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	21:44	0:00
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	10:48	0:31
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	32	29	3	.906	59:51	Win
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle12:44C. Sillinger14:30B. Jenner12:04

Line 2M. Wood12:24S. Monahan11:02K. Johnson8:16

Line 3A. Fantilli13:37K. Marchenko13:00D. Voronkov10:15

Line 4E. Chinakhov9:04L. Belluz8:26

Pair 1D. Mateychuk17:47Z. Werenski19:02

Pair 2D. Severson16:08I. Provorov15:42

Pair 3D. Fabbro12:26J. Christiansen7:16

VAN

Line 1E. Kane15:03C. Garland13:14E. Pettersson12:50

Line 2J. DeBrusk12:56D. O'Connor13:02A. Räty11:04

Line 3L. Reichel12:38B. Boeser11:49K. Sherwood11:36

Line 4A. Bains6:02M. Sasson7:32L. Karlsson4:29

Pair 1Q. Hughes20:03F. Hronek16:45

Pair 2T. Myers15:45M. Pettersson16:36

Pair 3E. Pettersson8:44T. Willander10:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConor Garland CBJ First game back in Vancouver, his team until Mar 20261 G, 2 SOG
HometownDante Fabbro CBJ Plays near home (born in Coquitlam)0 SOG
HometownKent Johnson CBJ Plays near home (born in Port Moody)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.2, VAN 3.4	CBJ 3, VAN 4
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 28.6, VAN 29.9	CBJ 32, VAN 24
Win chance	VAN 54%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.1	4	0.82	0	19%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.9	4	0.63	0	30%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.8	4	1.10	1	17%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.8	2	0.69	1	32%	1
VAN C. Garland	2.7	2	0.79	1	27%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	4	0.73	3	27%	2
VAN K. Sherwood	2.4	1	0.70	1	29%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	3	0.78	1	32%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	1	0.98	1	33%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	5	0.59	2	24%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.0	3	0.50	0	22%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	5	0.58	3	23%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	1	0.67	0	20%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.7	0	0.30	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	2	0.40	0	14%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	1	0.56	1	9%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	3	0.57	0	19%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.5	2	0.36	2	16%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.5	1	0.32	1	6%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	1	0.38	0	9%	0
VAN L. Reichel	1.4	0	0.38	1	15%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	0	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.48	0	17%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.3	0	0.27	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.38	0	10%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	0	0.40	1	18%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	1.2	1	0.46	0	14%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	0	0.29	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	0	0.27	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	0	0.32	1	10%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	2	0.36	0	5%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.