Game Recap: CBJ 2, WPG 5, November 18, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalTue, Nov 18, 2025Every game that night

WPG5

WPG beat CBJ 5-2, with the chances close: 2.67 expected goals to 2.38. WPG outshot CBJ 30 to 22. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). V. Namestnikov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. E. Comrie stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	0	1	2
WPG	1	2	2	5

1st 7:35WPGA. Lowry0.25 xG
1st 18:27CBJM. Wood0.13 xG
2nd 1:12WPGJ. Morrissey0.10 xG
2nd 15:30WPGN. PionkPP0.06 xG
3rd 2:45WPGK. Connor0.05 xG
3rd 4:04CBJZ. Werenski0.15 xG
3rd 6:23WPGL. Stanley0.04 xG

Team Stats

CBJWPG

22Shots on goal30

2.38Expected goals2.67

53Shot attempts60

205v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play1/2

13Hits16

11Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.38 xGWPG 2.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ21 on goal, 2 scored

WPG30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:01	0:59
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:10	0:59
M. Wood	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	15:54	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:05	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:34	1:01
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:25	1:01
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:13	1:01
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:11	0:59
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:00	1:01
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:00	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:49	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:39	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	24:10	1:01
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:24	0:59
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	2	25:08	0:59
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:07	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	14:29	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	30	25	5	.833	60:00	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	3	3	1	0	0	+2	0	17:41	0:55
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	17:45	0:52
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	14:14	1:45
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	12:44	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:18	1:45
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:34	1:45
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:28	0:55
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	17:09	1:45
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:51	0:54
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	13:15	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	13:00	0:01
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:37	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	1	2	1	0	3	+1	0	22:14	0:55
N. Pionk	D	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	20:16	1:45
L. Stanley	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:48	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	2	4	3	+1	0	16:25	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	21:54	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	18:47	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier16:20C. Sillinger16:15C. Coyle15:11

Line 2K. Marchenko15:28A. Fantilli15:12D. Voronkov13:59

Line 3M. Wood15:04S. Monahan14:26K. Johnson14:12

Line 4I. Lundestrom10:05L. Belluz9:39Z. Aston-Reese9:49

Pair 1Z. Werenski21:55I. Provorov23:29

Pair 2D. Severson18:39D. Mateychuk19:37

Pair 3J. Christiansen14:01D. Fabbro13:19

WPG

Line 1J. Toews15:49C. Perfetti16:33V. Namestnikov15:20

Line 2M. Scheifele16:46G. Vilardi14:57K. Connor16:14

Line 3N. Niederreiter12:29A. Iafallo11:57A. Lowry11:07

Line 4T. Pearson11:18M. Barron13:15G. Nyquist10:14

Pair 1D. DeMelo20:32J. Morrissey21:19

Pair 2N. Pionk17:53D. Samberg17:31

Pair 3L. Schenn15:38L. Stanley17:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Monahan CBJ Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20242 SOG
HometownDenton Mateychuk CBJ Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.6, WPG 3.6	CBJ 2, WPG 5
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 26.9, WPG 31.1	CBJ 22, WPG 30
Win chance	WPG 66%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.6	3	1.22	2	42%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	0.78	1	16%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	1	0.71	0	27%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	1	1.16	3	40%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	1	0.62	0	26%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.4	0	0.88	0	34%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	1	0.88	2	16%	1
WPG N. Pionk	2.1	2	0.50	2	10%	1
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	3	0.68	0	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.54	0	22%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.8	2	0.61	0	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.7	0	0.46	2	22%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.35	1	13%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.7	2	0.24	1	12%	1
WPG A. Iafallo	1.7	1	0.44	0	19%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.6	1	0.33	0	6%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	1	0.50	0	19%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	3	0.44	1	19%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.5	0	0.32	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	1	0.35	0	7%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.4	4	0.47	0	18%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	2	0.40	0	15%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.3	2	0.40	1	15%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	3	0.31	1	7%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.31	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.1	2	0.35	0	6%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.1	3	0.29	1	5%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.0	2	0.36	1	12%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.9	0	0.28	0	9%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.9	2	0.12	1	3%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.9	0	0.15	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	1	0.07	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.