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Game Recap
CBJ0
WSH2
WSH beat CBJ 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.50 expected goals to 2.90. T. Wilson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Thompson stopped 39 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 0:50WSHJ. Chychrun0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:34WSHA. ProtasEN0.66 xG
Team Stats
CBJWSH
39Shots on goal38
2.90Expected goals4.50
63Shot attempts65
315v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/4
12Hits16
7Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways15
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.90 xGWSH 4.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:15 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:51 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 19:26 | 2:49 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:06 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:49 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:08 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 1:18 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:03 | 0:08 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:03 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 27:53 | 2:02 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:52 | 1:58 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 1:21 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:12 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 37 | 36 | 1 | .973 | 57:20 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 4:20 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:41 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:12 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 6:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:12 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:25 | 4:47 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 4:18 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:14 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:12 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:20 | 1:39 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:46 | 5:24 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:12 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:36 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:01 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:12 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 39 | 39 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:49 | Win |
| C. Stevenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko13:19A. Fantilli12:37D. Voronkov12:26
Line 2S. Monahan12:55C. Sillinger12:57K. Johnson11:27
Line 3M. Wood10:42I. Lundestrom10:04C. Coyle10:19
Line 4B. Gaunce9:57E. Chinakhov9:11L. Belluz9:04
Pair 1Z. Werenski20:17I. Provorov19:27
Pair 2D. Severson16:56D. Mateychuk13:41
WSH
Line 1A. Beauvillier14:31E. Frank12:36N. Dowd13:33
Line 2A. Protas11:21J. Sourdif11:57T. Wilson11:11
Line 3A. Ovechkin11:06D. Strome12:29C. McMichael11:19
Line 4B. Duhaime8:58H. Lapierre8:24S. Milano7:41
Pair 1M. Roy16:45J. Chychrun15:14
Pair 2T. Riemsdyk14:13M. Fehérváry16:15
Pair 3D. McIlrath10:01R. Sandin17:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.7, WSH 3.7 | CBJ 0, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 26.8, WSH 31.5 | CBJ 39, WSH 38 |
| Win chance | WSH 66% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 5 | 1.07 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.1 | 5 | 0.78 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.7 | 4 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 6 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.4 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.3 | 6 | 0.90 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.3 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 2.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 4 | 1.02 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Gaunce | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Smith | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.