CGY beat ANA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.22 expected goals to 1.81. M. Weegar led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. LaCombe had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 19:04CGYM. Weegar0.14 xG
- 2nd 8:34ANAA. Killorn0.09 xG
- 2nd 12:44CGYN. Kadri0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:36ANAM. McTavishPP0.09 xG
- OT 2:05CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.60 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 4.22 xGANA 1.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 3:01 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 3:11 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:44 | 3:15 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:34 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 2:09 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:21 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:49 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:17 | 0:07 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 2:49 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:37 | 1:14 |
| M. Weegar | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:46 | 2:37 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:23 | 2:53 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:15 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:15 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:08 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 2:04 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:04 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:04 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:05 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 2:04 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:07 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:09 | 2:04 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:21 | 1:14 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:10 | 0:10 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:09 | 0:01 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6:19 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.2, ANA 3.0 | CGY 3, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 31.8, ANA 28.9 | CGY 33, ANA 28 |
| Win chance | CGY 53% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 5 | 0.56 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.0 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.3 | 7 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.