ANA beat CGY 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.25 expected goals to 3.28. CGY outshot ANA 39 to 23. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Gauthier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. V. Husso stopped 36 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| ANA | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
- 2nd 14:18CGYM. Backlund0.07 xG
- 3rd 11:49ANAT. Zegras0.16 xG
- 3rd 13:44CGYY. Sharangovich0.44 xG
- 3rd 15:18CGYM. Coronato0.50 xG
- 3rd 16:03ANAF. Vatrano0.16 xG
- 3rd 16:11ANAC. Gauthier0.08 xG
- OT 1:11ANAC. Gauthier0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.28 xGANA 2.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:30 | 5:16 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:41 | 7:08 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:53 | 4:09 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 4:17 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 5:41 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:23 | 7:23 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:17 | 6:48 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:33 | 2:31 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:40 | 4:02 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:15 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:12 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:16 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 27:53 | 6:58 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:22 | 5:04 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:58 | 0:50 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:51 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:51 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:06 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:10 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:09 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:08 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:01 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:52 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:59 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:01 |
| O. Kylington | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:50 | 0:59 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 24:57 | 0:02 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.2, ANA 3.1 | CGY 3, ANA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 32.2, ANA 29.0 | CGY 39, ANA 23 |
| Win chance | CGY 53% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.6 | 5 | 0.94 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.4 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.3 | 8 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.2 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 5 | 0.43 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY M. Frost | 2.0 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.2 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA O. Kylington | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.