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Game Recap
CGY6
BUF2
CGY beat BUF 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 1.69. R. Andersson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Kadri had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. D. Cooley stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:58CGYR. Andersson0.23 xG
- 1st 12:04CGYJ. Farabee0.11 xG
- 2nd 10:21BUFM. Samuelsson0.06 xG
- 2nd 15:57BUFT. Thompson0.04 xG
- 3rd 2:02CGYM. Frost0.18 xG
- 3rd 7:34CGYM. Backlund0.50 xG
- 3rd 9:50CGYJ. Farabee0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:49CGYM. Coronato0.26 xG
Team Stats
CGYBUF
35Shots on goal30
3.29Expected goals1.69
73Shot attempts60
305v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play0/3
17Hits17
16Blocked shots25
6Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways17
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.29 xGBUF 1.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Farabee | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:17 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:12 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:43 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:49 | 1:43 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:48 |
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Morton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:51 | 1:06 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:17 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:54 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 4:26 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:20 | 2:20 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:14 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:47 | 3:48 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:30 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:17 | 3:42 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 3:45 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 24:16 | 4:33 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:02 | 1:32 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:51 | 2:10 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri16:02J. Farabee15:13Y. Sharangovich15:09
Line 2M. Backlund14:38B. Coleman15:24C. Zary13:33
Line 3M. Frost12:06M. Coronato12:33J. Huberdeau12:10
Line 4A. Klapka9:12S. Morton9:13J. Beecher10:11
Pair 1R. Andersson19:15K. Bahl18:23
Pair 2M. Weegar18:33Y. Kuznetsov18:12
BUF
Line 1J. Greenway13:40T. Kozak14:17P. Krebs18:03
Line 2T. Thompson15:01J. Doan13:56A. Tuch13:00
Line 4J. Dunne9:22B. Malenstyn13:16N. Ostlund8:51
Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:41R. Dahlin19:26
Pair 2C. Timmins15:48B. Byram16:47
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.0, BUF 3.3 | CGY 6, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 29.8, BUF 28.8 | CGY 35, BUF 30 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 6 | 0.88 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.49 | 3 | 12% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.0 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 1 | 0.79 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 4 | 0.37 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.6 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.