Game Recap: CGY 3, CBJ 5, January 13, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY3

FinalTue, Jan 13, 2026Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat CGY 5-3, with the chances close: 4.59 expected goals to 4.46. CBJ outshot CGY 43 to 32. C. Coyle led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Coyle had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Greaves stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	2	1	3
CBJ	2	0	3	5

1st 3:57CBJD. Fabbro0.03 xG
1st 13:24CBJC. Coyle0.10 xG
2nd 12:00CGYM. FrostPP0.03 xG
2nd 19:18CGYR. AnderssonPP0.09 xG
3rd 4:46CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.13 xG
3rd 10:05CGYM. BacklundPP0.07 xG
3rd 18:26CBJB. Jenner0.07 xG
3rd 19:57CBJC. CoyleEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

CGYCBJ

32Shots on goal43

4.46Expected goals4.59

60Shot attempts73

245v5 shots on goal31

3/3Power play1/4

12Hits21

9Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes9

16Giveaways14

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 4.46 xGCBJ 4.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY32 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ42 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Backlund	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	-2	0	20:31	1:40
C. Zary	C	0	2	2	7	0	0	-2	0	17:43	1:43
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	-3	2	17:01	1:31
M. Frost	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	-1	2	14:18	1:41
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:52	0:53
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:44	0:50
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:02	0:50
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:44	1:02
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	14:04	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:57	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
W. Stromgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:21	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	3	3	1	-3	5	22:47	0:42
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	24:24	1:01
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	23:35	0:52
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	22:52	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	12:13	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	42	38	4	.905	58:42	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	2	1	3	7	0	1	+3	0	18:12	5:00
B. Jenner	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	5	17:26	1:37
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	5	3	0	0	0	20:17	5:30
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:00	6:10
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	14:27	2:07
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	20:55	5:26
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	19:03	1:41
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:40	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	8	0	+2	0	14:03	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	11:13	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:23	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:04	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	2	3	5	0	0	+2	2	27:45	5:28
D. Fabbro	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	21:02	0:30
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	11:10	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	+2	0	25:23	2:06
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	20:23	0:00
D. Mayo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee14:47J. Huberdeau14:08N. Kadri16:48

Line 2C. Zary14:37A. Klapka13:32M. Frost11:17

Line 3M. Backlund13:20M. Coronato13:42Y. Sharangovich12:39

Line 4J. Kirkland7:37R. Lomberg7:35W. Stromgren6:21

Pair 1M. Weegar19:33Y. Kuznetsov20:10

Pair 2R. Andersson16:53K. Bahl19:01

Pair 3J. Hanley10:52B. Pachal12:08

CBJ

Line 1B. Jenner15:15S. Monahan16:08K. Johnson15:29

Line 2C. Sillinger14:06A. Fantilli14:47K. Marchenko12:50

Line 3M. Olivier12:42D. Voronkov12:20C. Coyle10:33

Line 4B. Gaunce9:06D. Heinen7:04M. Pyyhtia6:44

Pair 1I. Provorov21:01E. Zamula19:27

Pair 2Z. Werenski20:22D. Fabbro19:32

Pair 3D. Mayo8:03J. Christiansen9:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayIvan Provorov CBJ Turns 29 that day6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 3.1, CBJ 3.3	CGY 3, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	CGY 30.5, CBJ 30.8	CGY 32, CBJ 43
Win chance	CBJ 53%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	5	0.90	3	19%	1
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	3	0.86	0	30%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	1	0.80	1	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	5	0.71	1	28%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.5	3	0.59	2	25%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	4	0.55	2	19%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	1	0.60	0	23%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.3	3	0.55	1	15%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	2	0.50	0	12%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	2	0.45	0	19%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	0	0.51	2	23%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	3	0.52	1	23%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	0	0.73	0	23%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	1	0.61	0	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	6	0.39	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.37	0	12%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	4	0.41	2	15%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.6	7	0.43	2	18%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	7	0.55	3	19%	2
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	3	0.48	0	17%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.4	1	0.25	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.37	0	15%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.2	2	0.29	0	14%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	1	0.27	0	9%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.24	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	3	0.21	1	5%	1
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.9	0	0.28	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	2	0.15	0	4%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.6	1	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	0	0.22	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	0	0.07	1	1%	0
CBJ D. Mayo	0.5	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.