Game Recap: CGY 1, COL 3, April 9, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY1

FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night

COL3

COL beat CGY 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.85 expected goals to 2.23. COL outshot CGY 41 to 29. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Coronato had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. M. Blackwood stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	1	1
COL	1	1	1	3

1st 18:44COLG. LandeskogPP0.22 xG
2nd 15:01COLM. Necas0.12 xG
3rd 17:08CGYT. Gross0.19 xG
3rd 19:05COLN. MacKinnonEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

CGYCOL

29Shots on goal41

2.23Expected goals5.85

60Shot attempts78

245v5 shots on goal33

0/2Power play1/3

19Hits11

19Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways12

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.23 xGCOL 5.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY29 on goal, 1 scored

COL41 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	4	19:15	1:07
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:48	1:17
T. Gross	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	13:15	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:11	1:13
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:31	1:15
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:16	0:57
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:18	1:07
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	12:50	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:07	1:01
A. Suniev	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:56	0:59
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	4	3	-1	0	9:25	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	23:31	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:19	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	20:31	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	19:27	0:50
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:57	1:24
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	11:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	40	38	2	.950	57:38	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	6	1	0	+1	2	22:23	2:17
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	4	1	1	+2	0	19:59	2:16
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	14:21	1:46
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:49	0:25
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:51	1:56
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	16:01	0:05
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:00	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	13:40	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:19	0:21
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:58	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	8:53	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:34	0:44
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:26	1:51
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:48	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:32	0:04
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:45	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Frost15:30M. Gridin15:07J. Farabee14:53

Line 2M. Backlund14:45M. Coronato15:58Y. Sharangovich12:25

Line 3C. Zary12:06A. Suniev10:57J. Beecher11:08

Line 4V. Olofsson11:06A. Klapka9:25T. Gross10:37

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud20:23Y. Kuznetsov18:00

Pair 2O. Määttä20:21H. Brzustewicz18:37

Pair 3Z. Parekh13:57B. Pachal11:10

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:12A. Lehkonen16:33M. Necas16:09

Line 2J. Drury13:34P. Kelly12:43L. O'Connor11:33

Line 3B. Nelson11:35V. Nichushkin13:35G. Landeskog11:19

Line 4N. Roy10:48R. Colton8:53J. Kiviranta8:58

Pair 1S. Malinski18:43D. Toews17:14

Pair 2J. Manson16:15B. Kulak19:37

Pair 3B. Burns16:07N. Blankenburg14:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.5, COL 4.0	CGY 1, COL 3
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	CGY 24.5, COL 35.5	CGY 29, COL 41
Win chance	COL 72%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	6	1.61	3	43%	1
COL M. Necas	2.9	4	1.22	3	34%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.6	3	0.93	0	35%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.2	2	0.47	0	9%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	2	0.45	0	18%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	3	0.72	1	27%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	3	0.67	0	27%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.0	5	0.43	1	18%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	2	0.65	0	26%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	3	0.37	1	9%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.8	2	0.47	1	15%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	3	0.35	0	15%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	2	0.55	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	3	0.38	0	7%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.7	0	0.37	0	18%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	1	0.36	0	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.5	1	0.37	0	17%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	2	0.42	0	17%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.22	0	4%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.2	3	0.29	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	2	0.35	0	14%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	1	0.33	0	12%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	1	0.36	0	14%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	1	0.28	0	11%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
CGY O. Määttä	0.9	1	0.28	0	4%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.8	2	0.16	0	8%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.