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Game Recap
CGY2
DAL6
DAL beat CGY 6-2, with the chances close: 2.55 expected goals to 1.87. T. Harley led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Backlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Oettinger stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
- 1st 1:00CGYJ. Huberdeau0.08 xG
- 1st 4:26DALW. JohnstonSH0.14 xG
- 2nd 7:47DALJ. Robertson0.18 xG
- 2nd 16:08CGYC. Zary0.23 xG
- 3rd 5:13DALR. Hintz0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:01DALS. Steel0.01 xG
- 3rd 13:02DALT. Harley0.02 xG
- 3rd 19:02DALT. Harley0.06 xG
Team Stats
CGYDAL
31Shots on goal28
1.87Expected goals2.55
65Shot attempts58
295v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play0/4
32Hits11
14Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways22
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.87 xGDAL 2.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:34 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:06 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:39 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | 1:07 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:36 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 15:41 | 0:29 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 2:32 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:51 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 2:03 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:31 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:16 | 2:23 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 22:40 | 1:43 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 | 19:49 | 0:50 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:16 | 0:06 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:15 | 3:52 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:03 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:13 | 3:52 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 3:54 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 3:01 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:57 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:39 | 3:47 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:07 | 2:57 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:36 | 2:55 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:03 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:03 |
| T. Harley | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:43 | 1:25 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:03 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:01 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:03 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:11 | 5:24 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:47 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.7, DAL 3.4 | CGY 2, DAL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.2, DAL 31.2 | CGY 31, DAL 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 62% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 2.9 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.91 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 2 | 9% | 2 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.