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Game Recap
CGY2
DAL3
DAL beat CGY 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.97 expected goals to 2.32. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 2:13CGYJ. Farabee0.22 xG
- 2nd 2:29CGYM. Backlund0.37 xG
- 2nd 4:06DALW. Johnston0.29 xG
- 3rd 9:00DALJ. Robertson0.06 xG
- OT 4:17DALJ. Robertson0.11 xG
Team Stats
CGYDAL
28Shots on goal27
2.32Expected goals2.97
55Shot attempts66
245v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/1
21Hits15
27Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways21
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.32 xGDAL 2.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:31 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:33 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:28 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:05 | 2:27 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:30 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:30 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:27 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:18 | 1:34 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:16 | 2:42 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 | 1:18 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:13 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 1:00 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:38 | 1:10 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:56 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:47 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 1:04 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:48 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:50 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:25 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26:45 | 1:35 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:12 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 64:17 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.6, DAL 3.3 | CGY 2, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.6, DAL 29.5 | CGY 28, DAL 27 |
| Win chance | DAL 62% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 4 | 0.85 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 0 | 0.85 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.0 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.