Game Recap: CGY 5, MIN 4, January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY5

FinalSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

MIN4

CGY beat MIN 5-4, with the chances close: 2.27 expected goals to 2.32. A. Kuzmenko led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Coronato had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Wolf stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	2	2	5
MIN	1	0	3	4

1st 6:58CGYA. KuzmenkoPP0.11 xG
1st 9:34MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.09 xG
2nd 12:28CGYM. Pospisil0.27 xG
2nd 19:52CGYR. AnderssonPP0.19 xG
3rd 11:53CGYC. Bishop0.10 xG
3rd 14:15MINF. GaudreauPP0.18 xG
3rd 14:29CGYA. Kuzmenko0.04 xG
3rd 18:46MINM. Foligno0.33 xG
3rd 19:33MINM. Zuccarello0.46 xG

Team Stats

CGYMIN

29Shots on goal25

2.27Expected goals2.32

58Shot attempts50

255v5 shots on goal20

2/3Power play1/2

20Hits23

13Blocked shots20

15Penalty minutes15

7Giveaways7

9Takeaways11

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.27 xGMIN 2.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY29 on goal, 5 scored

MIN25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kuzmenko	LW	2	1	3	3	0	0	+2	0	14:25	2:58
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	14:34	1:38
M. Pospisil	C	1	1	2	2	4	1	+2	0	13:54	2:43
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	21:14	3:28
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:00	2:57
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	5	7:56	0:00
C. Bishop	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	6:55	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	21:14	3:34
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	19:13	1:57
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	7	1	1	-2	0	19:00	2:30
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:30	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	5:48	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	26:03	3:02
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	4	24:30	1:20
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:21	1:31
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	17:30	0:02
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	16:06	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	0	3	3	1	1	0	+2	0	18:48	1:16
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	2	20:00	2:33
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	21:24	2:21
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	21:02	2:36
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	17:41	2:19
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	1	6	1	+1	0	14:10	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	-2	0	13:10	0:50
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	12:20	0:59
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:46	1:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:00	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:35	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	7	7:50	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	0	5	0	0	20:38	2:35
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	23:42	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	23:33	1:14
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:27	0:12
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:21	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+2	0	15:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	29	24	5	.828	58:57	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBlake Coleman MIN Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, MIN 3.1	CGY 5, MIN 4
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	CGY 30.0, MIN 29.4	CGY 29, MIN 25
Win chance	MIN 54%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	3	1.27	1	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	3	0.96	1	33%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	2	0.78	1	28%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	1	0.76	1	28%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.5	3	1.01	2	26%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	1	0.62	0	25%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	2	0.48	1	18%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	7	0.50	0	19%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.50	2	10%	0
MIN M. Rossi	2.1	1	0.71	3	26%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	2	0.50	1	21%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	1	0.44	1	9%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	0	0.50	2	23%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	3	0.76	0	23%	0
CGY J. Pelletier	1.5	1	0.40	0	14%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	2	0.32	2	10%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	3	0.39	1	16%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	2	0.38	1	9%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.4	3	0.25	0	6%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.4	1	0.29	0	11%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	0	0.48	0	9%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.3	3	0.36	0	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.2	0	0.23	0	6%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.37	1	16%	1
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.22	0	13%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.0	3	0.45	3	20%	2
CGY B. Pachal	1.0	1	0.15	0	3%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	0	0.19	0	5%	0
CGY C. Bishop	0.8	1	0.15	1	7%	1
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.11	1	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.7	1	0.19	0	8%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.