Game Recap: CGY 5, NJD 3, March 20, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY5

FinalThu, Mar 20, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

CGY beat NJD 5-3, with the chances close: 3.42 expected goals to 3.22. N. Hischier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Zary had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	1	4	5
NJD	1	2	0	3

1st 17:09NJDN. Hischier0.02 xG
2nd 5:25NJDE. Haula0.06 xG
2nd 11:58CGYM. CoronatoPP0.06 xG
2nd 19:32NJDP. Cotter0.27 xG
3rd 6:50CGYC. Zary0.05 xG
3rd 15:40CGYD. Miromanov0.03 xG
3rd 16:40CGYJ. Huberdeau0.27 xG
3rd 19:48CGYN. KadriEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

CGYNJD

28Shots on goal29

3.42Expected goals3.22

77Shot attempts50

255v5 shots on goal21

1/5Power play0/2

17Hits20

14Blocked shots22

4Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.42 xGNJD 3.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY28 on goal, 5 scored

NJD26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	19:38	4:05
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	21:57	4:17
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:43	4:00
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	18:33	4:10
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	17:34	3:48
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:30	4:07
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	15:18	1:03
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	2	12:48	3:09
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:11	4:27
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:43	0:03
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	7:57	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:26	0:01
J. Hanley	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	21:50	0:05
D. Miromanov	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:42	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	5	6	+3	0	25:33	4:15
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	23:51	4:05
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:28	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	22:14	2:51
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	18:38	1:30
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:46	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	0	10:46	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	4	21:01	2:15
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	20:55	3:17
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:44	2:19
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:24	1:11
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	12:22	1:41
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	11:36	0:44
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	9:32	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	3:52	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	-2	0	20:30	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	18:44	0:12
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	17:38	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+2	2	24:42	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:58	3:05
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	9:31	0:55

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	27	23	4	.852	57:48	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSimon Nemec CGY First game back in Newark, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
Old teamKevin Bahl CGY Faces NJD, his team until Apr 20241 SOG
Old teamYegor Sharangovich CGY Faces NJD, his team until May 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, NJD 3.1	CGY 5, NJD 3
Total goals	5.8	8
Shots on goal	CGY 27.3, NJD 28.4	CGY 28, NJD 29
Win chance	NJD 56%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.0	3	0.77	1	29%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.0	4	0.78	0	33%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	4	0.92	2	32%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	1	1.06	0	28%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	3	0.57	0	12%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	2	0.48	1	20%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	2	0.47	1	22%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	2	0.54	1	23%	0
NJD D. Sprong	1.9	3	0.50	0	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	2	0.72	2	23%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.8	0	0.48	1	18%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.7	1	0.41	0	10%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.7	0	0.44	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	0	0.61	0	9%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.6	0	0.38	1	17%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.6	2	0.36	1	16%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	2	0.46	0	22%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	0	0.44	0	21%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	5	0.40	1	17%	1
CGY M. Pospisil	1.2	4	0.32	1	10%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.0	2	0.18	1	5%	1
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	2	0.32	0	14%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	1	0.28	1	14%	1
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	2	0.24	1	5%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	0	0.17	0	5%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	1	0.12	0	9%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	2	0.23	0	11%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.12	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.23	1	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.23	1	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	2	0.16	1	4%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.7	2	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.4	0	0.09	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.