CGY beat NYR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 1.67. CGY outshot NYR 35 to 13. N. Kadri led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Bahl had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. D. Vladar stopped 12 of 13.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:13NYRA. Panarin0.18 xG
- 1st 10:22CGYN. Kadri0.30 xG
- 1st 18:03CGYM. CoronatoPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.07 xGNYR 1.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:11 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:10 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:01 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 2:11 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:12 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:57 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 1:46 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 1:44 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:20 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:41 | 0:07 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:06 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:45 | 2:23 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:49 | 1:54 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:20 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:03 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:41 | 1:18 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:42 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 1:13 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:47 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:52 | 1:18 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:14 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:51 | 0:46 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:42 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:21 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:45 | 1:14 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:46 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 57:36 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.5, NYR 3.4 | CGY 2, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.4, NYR 29.5 | CGY 35, NYR 13 |
| Win chance | NYR 64% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 1 | 1.23 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 5 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 5 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.4 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.