Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CGY3
OTT4
OTT beat CGY 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.13 expected goals to 1.71. B. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Y. Sharangovich had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Forsberg stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| OTT | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 14:32CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.15 xG
- 1st 17:05OTTA. Gaudette0.17 xG
- 2nd 3:18OTTD. BathersonPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 13:17OTTC. Reinhardt0.19 xG
- 2nd 15:27CGYY. Sharangovich0.07 xG
- 3rd 1:14OTTB. TkachukPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 19:21CGYN. Kadri0.04 xG
Team Stats
CGYOTT
27Shots on goal30
1.71Expected goals3.13
54Shot attempts66
185v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play2/9
14Hits27
23Blocked shots20
18Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways10
5Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.71 xGOTT 3.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:50 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 19:38 | 0:44 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:43 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 1:33 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:37 | 0:54 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:39 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:37 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:44 | 1:48 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 28:05 | 1:44 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 21:30 | 0:43 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 7:36 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:52 | 8:12 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:22 | 3:17 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 8:36 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 4:35 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 3:29 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:40 | 7:00 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:47 | 4:04 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:10 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:46 | 0:09 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:15 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 30:29 | 8:26 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:05 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:07 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:52 | 3:34 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:45 | Win |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.0, OTT 3.2 | CGY 3, OTT 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.8, OTT 32.2 | CGY 27, OTT 30 |
| Win chance | OTT 53% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 5 | 0.92 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.4 | 7 | 0.67 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.4 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.2 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.