Game Recap: CGY 3, OTT 4 (SO), October 30, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY3

Final/SOThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat CGY 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.64. OTT outshot CGY 38 to 29. L. Eller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Sanderson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Ullmark stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CGY	2	0	1	0	3
OTT	1	0	2	1	4

1st 5:51CGYY. SharangovichPP0.08 xG
1st 7:37OTTL. EllerSH0.33 xG
1st 15:53CGYM. CoronatoPP0.53 xG
3rd 2:36OTTA. Zub0.03 xG
3rd 8:16CGYN. Kadri0.23 xG
3rd 17:11OTTJ. Sanderson0.01 xG

Team Stats

CGYOTT

29Shots on goal38

2.64Expected goals4.06

55Shot attempts64

195v5 shots on goal18

2/4Power play0/4

17Hits16

7Blocked shots21

10Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways23

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.64 xGOTT 4.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY29 on goal, 3 scored

OTT38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	20:45	4:01
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:06	3:55
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	19:33	2:17
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-2	0	17:59	4:02
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:25	2:17
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	17:03	4:01
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	18:31	2:17
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	17:37	2:25
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	9:33	0:14
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:02	0:14
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	8:06	0:14
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	2	27:32	4:01
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	25:57	2:33
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	21:41	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:58	0:14
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	38	35	3	.921	64:12	OT loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Eller	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	12:16	1:33
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	7	0	1	+1	0	24:57	5:42
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	20:56	5:42
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	2	19:47	1:29
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:10	3:05
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	18:25	3:35
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	18:15	3:42
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:12	1:31
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	13:38	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:53	0:28
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	2	10:56	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:17	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	1	0	1	8	0	3	+1	0	28:50	5:36
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+1	0	24:49	1:39
A. Zub	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:09	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:15	0:13
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	17:52	0:05
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	29	26	3	.897	65:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee12:41Y. Sharangovich12:46M. Coronato12:40

Line 2N. Kadri13:18M. Frost12:08J. Huberdeau12:34

Line 3M. Backlund10:38B. Coleman11:58S. Honzek9:58

Line 4J. Kirkland7:51R. Lomberg9:19A. Klapka7:52

Pair 1M. Weegar17:06J. Hanley16:08

Pair 2K. Bahl15:54R. Andersson16:04

Pair 3J. Bean12:30B. Pachal11:50

OTT

Line 1D. Perron13:41R. Greig13:23D. Cozens12:19

Line 2T. Stützle12:20D. Batherson13:02N. Cousins10:56

Line 3C. Giroux11:12S. Pinto13:03M. Amadio12:26

Line 4F. Zetterlund10:42L. Eller8:35K. MacDermid2:17

Pair 1N. Jensen13:53T. Chabot16:53

Pair 2J. Sanderson16:40A. Zub15:49

Pair 3J. Spence13:10T. Kleven12:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, OTT 3.2	CGY 3, OTT 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	CGY 27.5, OTT 29.6	CGY 29, OTT 38
Win chance	OTT 55%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	4	0.91	1	32%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	0	0.54	0	23%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	5	0.63	0	23%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	2	0.67	1	28%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.74	1	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	7	0.84	1	25%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.0	3	0.54	1	22%	1
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	2	0.44	1	18%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	8	0.52	1	8%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	0	0.53	1	10%	0
CGY M. Backlund	1.9	6	0.43	0	17%	0
CGY M. Weegar	1.9	1	0.51	1	10%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	1	0.79	1	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	1	0.42	1	10%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.36	0	16%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.8	1	0.57	0	23%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	1	0.51	1	17%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	2	0.45	0	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	3	0.64	0	21%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	2	0.46	1	21%	1
OTT L. Eller	1.4	1	0.37	2	15%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.41	0	19%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.3	1	0.22	0	12%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	0	0.28	0	11%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	2	0.17	0	5%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.0	2	0.30	1	3%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	2	0.15	0	3%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	2	0.25	1	4%	1
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.15	0	7%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	1	0.24	0	8%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.4	0	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.