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Game Recap
CGY2
FinalSun, Nov 2, 2025Every game that night
PHI1

CGY beat PHI 2-1, with the chances close: 1.98 expected goals to 1.49. J. Huberdeau led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Wolf stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY0112
PHI0011
  1. 2nd 2:15CGYJ. Huberdeau0.02 xG
  2. 3rd 7:06CGYJ. Huberdeau0.05 xG
  3. 3rd 14:20PHIT. Konecny0.00 xG

Team Stats

CGYPHI
21Shots on goal18
1.98Expected goals1.49
45Shot attempts50
195v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play0/1
25Hits21
18Blocked shots17
2Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways17
7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 1.98 xGPHI 1.49 xGGoal

00.511.521st2nd3rdCGY goal, 2:15CGY goal, 7:06PHI goal, 14:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY19 on goal, 2 scored
PHI16 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HuberdeauLW202201+2018:272:30
Y. SharangovichC011100+1010:370:52
J. FarabeeLW0001300018:421:07
N. KadriC0001100018:002:45
M. BacklundC000200-1017:310:00
B. ColemanLW000111-1017:300:00
C. ZaryC000220+1017:170:52
M. FrostC000412+1017:132:48
M. CoronatoRW000010+1015:412:45
S. HonzekLW000040-1014:440:00
A. KlapkaRW000041007:450:00
R. LombergLW000100007:370:00
M. WeegarD0112540025:591:59
J. HanleyD0110150022:010:00
B. PachalD0111010011:290:00
K. BahlD000110+1023:150:00
R. AnderssonD0002120221:530:49
Z. ParekhD000001+1012:591:38
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf18171.94459:20Win
D. Cooley000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. KonecnyRW101311+1021:400:55
N. CatesLW011120+1017:120:42
T. ZegrasC000211-1020:440:42
S. CouturierC000110-1019:310:55
C. DvorakC000101-2017:550:55
O. TippettRW000011-1215:410:41
B. BrinkRW000240-1213:450:42
M. MichkovRW0001010013:410:48
N. GrebenkinRW000020+1012:060:00
R. AbolsC0001000010:450:00
G. HathawayRW000040009:090:00
J. GaucherC000111008:460:00
T. SanheimD0002120025:000:08
C. YorkD0000030023:380:55
J. DrysdaleD000003-1021:540:42
N. SeelerD000122-1021:160:00
E. ZamulaD0002110012:500:00
N. JuulsenD0000000012:150:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Kolosov21192.90558:12Loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee16:30C. Zary16:25N. Kadri14:35
Line 2M. Backlund14:40B. Coleman15:03S. Honzek13:38
Line 3J. Huberdeau14:16M. Frost13:45M. Coronato12:16
Line 4Y. Sharangovich8:51A. Klapka7:45R. Lomberg7:37
Pair 1K. Bahl22:05R. Andersson20:40
Pair 2M. Weegar20:57J. Hanley19:36
Pair 3Z. Parekh10:41B. Pachal10:15

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny17:35T. Zegras17:51S. Couturier14:48
Line 2B. Brink12:19N. Cates13:52O. Tippett13:28
Line 3R. Abols10:32C. Dvorak14:42M. Michkov11:35
Line 4G. Hathaway8:38J. Gaucher8:46N. Grebenkin11:27
Pair 1T. Sanheim21:07C. York20:22
Pair 2N. Seeler18:50J. Drysdale20:33
Pair 3E. Zamula12:50N. Juulsen10:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamDan Vladar PHI Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0
  • Old teamJoel Farabee CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20251 SOG
  • Old teamMorgan Frost CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 3.0, PHI 2.9CGY 2, PHI 1
Total goals6.03
Shots on goalCGY 27.1, PHI 27.4CGY 21, PHI 18
Win chanceCGY 51%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CGY N. Kadri3.210.91032%0
PHI O. Tippett2.900.61027%0
PHI M. Michkov2.410.72023%0
PHI T. Konecny2.430.82128%1
CGY B. Coleman2.310.55024%0
PHI S. Couturier2.010.58017%0
CGY R. Andersson2.020.46012%0
PHI T. Zegras2.020.73024%0
CGY J. Farabee2.010.47020%0
CGY M. Backlund2.020.45017%0
CGY M. Coronato2.000.54022%0
CGY M. Weegar2.020.54111%0
CGY J. Huberdeau1.820.79224%2
PHI N. Cates1.810.55120%0
CGY M. Frost1.740.52018%0
PHI B. Brink1.620.58019%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.620.3909%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.510.47121%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.510.48018%0
CGY C. Zary1.420.40017%0
CGY S. Honzek1.400.21011%0
PHI N. Seeler1.310.2303%0
PHI R. Abols1.310.20010%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.200.3407%0
PHI C. York1.200.3507%0
CGY A. Klapka1.200.29013%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.100.2607%0
PHI J. Gaucher1.010.1408%0
CGY K. Bahl1.010.2505%0
PHI G. Hathaway1.000.22011%0
CGY R. Lomberg0.810.1608%0
CGY B. Pachal0.710.1514%0
CGY J. Hanley0.600.1513%0
PHI N. Juulsen0.600.0801%0
PHI E. Zamula0.520.1803%0
PHI N. Grebenkin0.400.1908%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.