PIT beat CGY 6-2, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.16. PIT outshot CGY 43 to 32. K. Letang led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Letang had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| PIT | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 17:14PITA. Beauvillier0.04 xG
- 2nd 2:40PITM. BuntingPP0.01 xG
- 2nd 9:02PITP. TomasinoPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 5:25PITR. Rakell0.17 xG
- 3rd 7:59PITK. LetangPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 14:27CGYJ. Huberdeau0.18 xG
- 3rd 15:05CGYN. Kadri0.30 xG
- 3rd 18:23PITB. Lizotte0.05 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.16 xGPIT 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:28 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:01 | 3:19 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:18 | 3:23 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:59 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:23 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 3:29 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:08 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 2:12 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 14:53 | 2:56 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:59 | 0:08 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:07 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:07 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:07 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 12 | 23:35 | 3:15 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 2:39 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:20 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 3:45 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 11:34 | 0:01 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:24 | 4:03 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 3:54 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 3:28 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 3:50 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:31 | 3:45 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:01 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:49 | 3:41 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:21 | 4:17 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 4:14 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 3:31 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:20 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 59:18 | Win |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.2, PIT 3.2 | CGY 2, PIT 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 31.5, PIT 31.5 | CGY 32, PIT 43 |
| Win chance | PIT 51% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 6 | 0.82 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 4 | 1.10 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 6 | 0.59 | 3 | 22% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.9 | 8 | 0.54 | 3 | 11% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 4 | 0.72 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.