Game Recap: CGY 1, SEA 4, April 11, 2026

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Game Recap

CGY1

FinalSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat CGY 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.63 expected goals to 1.85. R. Evans led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). F. Gaudreau had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. N. Kokko stopped 26 of 27.

Team Stats

CGYSEA

27Shots on goal21

1.85Expected goals2.63

52Shot attempts53

245v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play0/3

13Hits12

17Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes2

6Giveaways15

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 1.85 xGSEA 2.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY26 on goal, 1 scored

SEA20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-2	0	16:33	1:16
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	19:58	1:17
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	19:24	1:18
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:41	1:20
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:02	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:30	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	15:16	0:42
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:34	0:40
A. Suniev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:25	0:43
T. Gross	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:58	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	11:23	0:44
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	-1	0	23:06	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	17:05	0:33
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	24:52	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	22:06	1:27
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	18:02	0:00
A. Wiebe	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	20	17	3	.850	58:48	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	21:16	4:24
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	20:54	4:32
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	16:59	4:31
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	15:16	0:03
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:52	4:35
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:54	1:34
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:12	1:25
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:27	1:28
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:13	0:02
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	12:58	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:42	1:24
O. Fisker Molgaard	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+2	0	19:26	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	2	18:56	4:27
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	18:46	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:11	1:33
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	19:36	0:02
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	17:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Kokko	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
V. Ostman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Gridin17:47M. Frost15:28J. Farabee11:48

Line 2B. Coleman14:20R. Strome11:53A. Suniev11:41

Line 3M. Backlund12:12Y. Sharangovich11:20M. Coronato14:03

Line 4T. Gross11:30C. Zary10:38M. Pospisil9:59

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud20:02Y. Kuznetsov15:44

Pair 2O. Määttä19:00H. Brzustewicz15:32

Pair 3A. Wiebe11:19Z. Parekh19:39

SEA

Line 1B. McMann17:16M. Beniers16:09J. Eberle15:39

Line 2F. Gaudreau13:58K. Kakko11:46J. McCann10:17

Line 3J. Schwartz11:10C. Stephenson11:18E. Tolvanen12:46

Line 4R. Winterton12:05B. Catton10:17O. Molgaard9:33

Pair 1J. Oleksiak17:47R. Evans18:25

Pair 2B. Montour18:38R. Lindgren17:23

Pair 3A. Larsson14:59V. Dunn14:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayBrandon Montour SEA Turns 32 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, SEA 3.2	CGY 1, SEA 4
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CGY 28.0, SEA 29.3	CGY 27, SEA 21
Win chance	SEA 56%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. McMann	2.7	3	0.66	0	30%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.7	1	0.49	0	14%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.6	3	0.61	0	25%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	0	0.53	1	20%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	2	0.73	1	28%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	5	0.53	0	19%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	2	0.72	1	25%	1
CGY M. Gridin	2.0	1	0.59	0	17%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	2	0.54	1	11%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	3	0.63	1	24%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	0	0.52	1	22%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	0	0.51	0	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	1	0.45	0	19%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.6	1	0.32	0	9%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	2	0.42	0	20%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	1	0.41	0	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	0	0.30	0	7%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.4	1	0.33	0	13%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.3	3	0.35	0	15%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	0	0.56	1	18%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.3	0	0.44	0	14%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.2	4	0.28	0	8%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.66	1	19%	1
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.1	3	0.24	1	4%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	4	0.36	1	15%	1
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	0	0.33	1	5%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.0	0	0.21	0	6%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.16	1	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.25	2	7%	0
SEA O. Molgaard	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.