Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CGY0
TBL3
TBL beat CGY 3-0, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 2.52. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Huberdeau had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 19:15TBLN. KucherovPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 3:51TBLE. Cernak0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:10TBLB. HagelEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
CGYTBL
28Shots on goal22
2.52Expected goals2.95
68Shot attempts47
255v5 shots on goal15
0/3Power play1/3
27Hits14
17Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes18
17Giveaways21
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.52 xGTBL 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:43 | 3:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:29 | 3:03 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:59 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 2:03 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:41 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 2:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:16 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:57 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 1:16 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:43 | 3:16 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:17 | 1:52 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 21:09 | 0:09 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:37 | 0:08 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:55 | 3:18 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:18 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:20 | 0:35 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:41 | 3:18 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 3:13 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:08 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14:17 | 0:35 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:35 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:43 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:16 | 0:08 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:46 | 3:18 |
| E. Cernak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:08 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:05 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:35 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 28 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.7, TBL 3.4 | CGY 0, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.8, TBL 29.8 | CGY 28, TBL 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.5 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.4 | 4 | 1.63 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 0 | 1.01 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 2 | 1.01 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 1 | 1.07 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 4 | 0.78 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.7 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.4 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY I. Solovyov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.