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Game Recap
CGY1
TBL5
TBL beat CGY 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.81 expected goals to 3.73. CGY outshot TBL 32 to 23. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Farabee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 0:39TBLB. Hagel0.14 xG
- 1st 1:26TBLC. D'Astous0.05 xG
- 1st 5:52TBLZ. Girgensons0.02 xG
- 1st 10:01TBLD. Carlile0.07 xG
- 3rd 1:04CGYJ. FarabeeSH0.04 xG
- 3rd 14:23TBLN. Kucherov0.16 xG
Team Stats
CGYTBL
32Shots on goal23
3.73Expected goals2.81
62Shot attempts60
265v5 shots on goal17
0/5Power play0/4
25Hits13
17Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways14
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.73 xGTBL 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:01 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 6:29 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:15 | 6:36 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:47 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 6:26 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:42 | 6:28 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:39 | 0:02 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:50 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:52 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:43 | 1:55 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:39 | 3:09 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | 21:37 | 5:18 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:02 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 4:57 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:30 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 17:28 | 5:33 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 4:54 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:26 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:50 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 4:48 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 1:29 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:18 | 4:52 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 1:31 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 18:27 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund12:27B. Coleman11:38C. Zary12:07
Line 2N. Kadri12:51Y. Sharangovich11:21J. Farabee10:37
Line 3J. Huberdeau10:59M. Coronato11:11M. Frost10:14
Line 4R. Lomberg10:12A. Klapka9:48J. Beecher7:09
Pair 1M. Weegar14:13Y. Kuznetsov16:47
Pair 3R. Andersson14:36K. Bahl14:22
TBL
Line 1J. Guentzel14:37N. Paul13:45G. Goncalves12:28
Line 2A. Cirelli11:14B. Hagel13:46N. Kucherov11:48
Line 3Y. Gourde11:51P. Holmberg9:35Z. Girgensons9:27
Line 4C. Douglas6:31O. Bjorkstrand8:05D. James7:26
Pair 1S. Santini15:18D. Carlile14:16
Pair 2D. Raddysh12:25J. Moser14:42
Pair 3E. Lilleberg15:12C. D'Astous15:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.7, TBL 3.3 | CGY 1, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.9, TBL 27.7 | CGY 32, TBL 23 |
| Win chance | TBL 60% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 3 | 1.35 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 1 | 1.01 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 3 | 0.86 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 6 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.0 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.8 | 6 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.5 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.