Game Recap: CGY 3, TOR 4, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY3

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat CGY 4-3, with the chances close: 3.39 expected goals to 3.19. TOR outshot CGY 37 to 29. M. Knies led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Knies had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Stolarz stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	1	1	3
TOR	0	2	2	4

1st 4:33CGYM. Frost0.11 xG
2nd 3:13TORM. Domi0.12 xG
2nd 17:55CGYJ. Farabee0.17 xG
2nd 19:25TORM. Knies0.26 xG
3rd 3:45TORM. KniesPP0.56 xG
3rd 14:49CGYS. Honzek0.25 xG
3rd 17:56TORM. Domi0.10 xG

Team Stats

CGYTOR

29Shots on goal37

3.19Expected goals3.39

55Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play1/4

20Hits18

10Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes6

30Giveaways16

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.19 xGTOR 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY29 on goal, 3 scored

TOR35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	23:33	4:23
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	21:37	3:50
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	2	21:15	3:26
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	16:27	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	16:04	0:04
S. Honzek	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	8:38	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	16:34	2:29
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:18	2:25
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	11:43	2:03
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:21	3:15
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:06	0:07
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	0	0	25:48	1:56
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	22:58	0:10
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:50	1:23
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:48	0:10
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:54	3:40
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	11:39	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	37	33	4	.892	58:34	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	2	1	3	5	1	1	+2	2	21:02	5:11
M. Domi	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	12:25	0:46
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:49	5:22
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+2	0	18:13	4:15
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	15:15	0:07
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:47	0:35
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	0	21:03	5:07
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:22	0:35
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:05	0:09
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	12:09	0:03
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	10:16	0:14
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:54	1:39
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	24:01	0:21
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	23:05	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	19:35	4:56
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	17:19	1:15
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:22	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	15:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	29	26	3	.897	60:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri17:21M. Frost16:21J. Huberdeau15:14

Line 2M. Backlund12:51B. Coleman11:56S. Honzek10:50

Line 3J. Farabee13:25C. Zary9:36Y. Sharangovich9:38

Line 4R. Lomberg7:59J. Kirkland7:00M. Coronato6:55

Pair 1R. Andersson18:13K. Bahl18:35

Pair 2M. Weegar17:38J. Bean18:27

Pair 3J. Hanley9:36Z. Parekh10:40

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares13:53M. Knies14:33M. Maccelli11:12

Line 2W. Nylander13:22A. Matthews12:08B. McMann12:21

Line 3M. Domi11:39N. Robertson10:58S. Lorentz11:58

Line 4N. Roy10:03E. Cowan8:15D. Joshua8:32

Pair 1J. McCabe18:03B. Carlo18:50

Pair 2M. Rielly14:34P. Myers13:06

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson15:57S. Benoit12:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownMorgan Frost CGY Plays near home (born in Aurora)1 G, 4 SOG
HometownZayne Parekh CGY Plays near home (born in Markham)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, TOR 3.3	CGY 3, TOR 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	CGY 28.8, TOR 28.1	CGY 29, TOR 37
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.2	6	1.23	0	47%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	5	0.83	1	29%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	0	1.06	1	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	5	0.90	1	34%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	3	0.52	0	22%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.4	5	0.83	3	30%	2
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	0	0.54	0	22%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	3	0.48	0	23%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.55	0	12%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	2	0.42	1	17%	1
CGY R. Andersson	2.0	1	0.41	1	11%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.0	1	0.41	1	16%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	3	0.74	1	22%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.37	0	19%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.61	0	10%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	4	0.45	1	15%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.50	1	16%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	2	0.39	0	16%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	3	0.46	2	13%	2
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	2	0.41	0	7%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.3	0	0.40	0	12%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.3	1	0.18	1	10%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.3	3	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	0	0.41	0	16%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.2	1	0.25	0	7%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.1	1	0.17	0	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.17	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.33	0	16%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.32	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	2	0.22	1	9%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.15	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.13	0	2%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	0	0.21	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.