UTA beat CGY 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 1.97. M. Sergachev led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Hayton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Ingram stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 4:41UTAA. Kerfoot0.08 xG
- 1st 19:58UTAB. Hayton0.15 xG
- 2nd 3:53CGYA. Mantha0.10 xG
- 2nd 4:10UTAM. Lamoureux0.04 xG
- 2nd 16:32UTAM. SergachevPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 5:13UTAC. KellerPP0.23 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.97 xGUTA 3.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mantha | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:28 | 3:03 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 3:13 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:47 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:22 | 3:00 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:53 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:02 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 3:04 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:45 | 1:45 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| S. Honzek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:21 | 3:01 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:39 | 3:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 1:12 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:31 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:35 | 3:31 |
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:31 |
| B. Hayton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:31 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:29 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:29 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:29 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:21 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:46 | 3:31 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:08 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:33 | 1:29 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.3, UTA 3.5 | CGY 1, UTA 5 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 30.6, UTA 29.5 | CGY 31, UTA 28 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.9 | 2 | 1.06 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 5 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 2.0 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.66 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY A. Mantha | 1.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.