Game Recap: CGY 1, UTA 3, April 1, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY1

FinalTue, Apr 1, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

UTA beat CGY 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.11 expected goals to 2.01. B. Coleman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. K. Vejmelka stopped 33 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	1	0	1
UTA	1	1	1	3

1st 17:46UTAK. Stenlund0.17 xG
2nd 2:25UTAB. Hayton0.10 xG
2nd 13:00CGYR. Andersson0.00 xG
3rd 19:42UTAC. KellerEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

CGYUTA

34Shots on goal28

2.01Expected goals5.11

60Shot attempts58

285v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/1

33Hits28

14Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways20

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.01 xGUTA 5.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY33 on goal, 1 scored

UTA28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	21:09	2:35
N. Kadri	C	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:57	2:35
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	18:59	2:14
M. Backlund	C	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:49	1:42
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	6	3	1	0	0	18:06	1:22
M. Frost	C	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:56	2:17
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:27	1:36
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:21	1:25
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	13:24	0:07
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	7:44	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	7:24	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	7:21	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	1	4	1	2	-1	0	23:42	1:37
M. Weegar	D	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	25:13	2:23
K. Bahl	D	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	21:31	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:49	0:07
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:26	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	12:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	27	25	2	.926	59:18	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:35	1:13
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:20	1:08
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	15:51	1:14
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	15:32	1:14
K. Stenlund	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:22	0:16
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	15:01	0:36
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	14:39	0:16
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	13:21	0:30
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	13:07	0:30
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	12:52	0:16
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:14	0:31
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:22	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	2	23:23	1:02
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	1	4	6	+2	0	22:11	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	23:16	0:58
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:31	0:16
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:47	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	34	33	1	.971	60:00	Win
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMacKenzie Weegar UTA Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.9, UTA 3.5	CGY 1, UTA 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	CGY 27.4, UTA 29.7	CGY 34, UTA 28
Win chance	UTA 60%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	3	0.85	0	31%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.79	1	31%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	4	1.00	1	31%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	2	0.53	0	22%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	2	0.80	1	28%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	3	0.55	0	11%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	3	0.84	1	26%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.0	6	0.45	0	20%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	1	0.81	0	24%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.9	1	0.52	1	19%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.9	1	0.53	0	18%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	4	0.41	1	10%	1
CGY M. Backlund	1.7	3	0.35	0	14%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	3	0.38	0	16%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	1	0.65	0	11%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	0	0.43	0	16%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	2	0.34	0	18%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	1	0.44	1	9%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	0	0.44	0	20%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	2	0.35	0	10%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.4	1	0.31	0	14%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	2	0.29	0	5%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.3	3	0.42	1	15%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	2	0.28	1	15%	1
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	0	0.36	0	15%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	1	0.20	0	11%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.34	0	4%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.19	1	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.12	0	6%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	1	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.