Game Recap: CGY 6, VAN 5 (OT), October 9, 2024

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Game Recap

CGY6

Final/OTWed, Oct 9, 2024Every game that night

VAN5

CGY beat VAN 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.31 expected goals to 2.36. B. Boeser led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Vladar stopped 19 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CGY	1	1	3	1	6
VAN	4	0	1	0	5

1st 9:40VAND. SprongPP0.03 xG
1st 11:48VANB. BoeserPP0.19 xG
1st 12:16VANC. Garland0.33 xG
1st 15:49CGYA. ManthaSH0.10 xG
1st 17:18VANB. Boeser0.08 xG
2nd 17:01CGYR. Andersson0.14 xG
3rd 2:41CGYM. Pospisil0.08 xG
3rd 8:16CGYM. WeegarPP0.05 xG
3rd 10:40CGYJ. Huberdeau0.07 xG
3rd 18:23VANJ. Miller0.05 xG
OT 1:33CGYC. Zary0.26 xG

Team Stats

CGYVAN

26Shots on goal24

2.31Expected goals2.36

57Shot attempts59

215v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play2/4

21Hits17

22Blocked shots12

17Penalty minutes15

9Giveaways14

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.31 xGVAN 2.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY26 on goal, 6 scored

VAN24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	21:50	2:49
C. Zary	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:09	2:51
A. Mantha	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	7	16:27	2:12
M. Pospisil	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	+1	2	15:47	0:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	20:19	2:46
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:22	3:04
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	21:19	1:54
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	17:53	1:41
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	13:11	1:48
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	10:54	0:13
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	4	8:48	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:03	0:16
R. Andersson	D	1	1	2	3	0	6	+1	0	22:03	1:30
M. Weegar	D	1	0	1	5	2	5	0	0	22:33	3:12
B. Pachal	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	18:19	0:17
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	18:16	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	18:11	0:17
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	24	19	5	.792	61:33	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	18:21	3:17
J. Miller	C	1	1	2	3	3	1	0	5	17:45	3:36
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	23:34	3:31
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:44	3:32
C. Garland	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:05	2:44
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:04	2:45
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	14:00	2:34
D. Sprong	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	13:07	2:27
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8:46	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	13:44	0:00
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:23	0:00
N. Aman	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:13	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	23:48	3:38
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	22:23	2:31
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:38	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	18:58	0:00
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	16:53	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	4	13:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	26	20	6	.769	60:37	OT loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownKevin Bahl CGY Plays near home (born in New Westminster)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.8, VAN 3.1	CGY 6, VAN 5
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	CGY 28.6, VAN 26.5	CGY 26, VAN 24
Win chance	VAN 55%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	2	0.81	2	26%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.9	3	1.32	2	35%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.7	3	0.94	2	34%	2
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.6	2	0.73	1	30%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	2	0.66	1	22%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.6	1	1.07	1	33%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.5	5	0.55	1	15%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.4	0	0.48	0	17%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	2	0.53	0	22%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.1	0	0.97	2	11%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.9	2	0.38	2	12%	1
CGY A. Kuzmenko	1.9	2	0.73	1	29%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.9	0	0.32	0	11%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	3	0.48	2	11%	1
VAN D. Heinen	1.8	0	0.52	1	21%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	4	0.67	1	17%	1
VAN D. Sprong	1.8	2	0.47	1	18%	1
VAN K. Sherwood	1.6	2	0.41	0	15%	0
CGY A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.46	2	18%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.46	1	7%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.4	3	0.44	2	16%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	2	0.37	1	18%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	1	0.35	0	10%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	2	0.27	0	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	0	0.15	1	4%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	0	0.21	1	10%	0
CGY K. Rooney	1.0	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	0	0.22	1	7%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.11	0	7%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.7	0	0.14	1	3%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	1	0.17	0	5%	0
VAN N. Aman	0.6	0	0.19	0	7%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.