VAN beat CGY 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 2.09. E. Brannstrom led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Brannstrom had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. K. Lankinen stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VAN | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 19:00CGYJ. Kirkland0.38 xG
- 2nd 0:23VANE. PetterssonPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 2:38VANP. Suter0.12 xG
- 3rd 6:19VANE. Brannstrom0.04 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.09 xGVAN 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kirkland | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:12 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 1:51 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 1:12 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:48 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:50 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 1:48 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:37 | 2:13 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:56 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:10 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 1:49 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:14 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:57 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 19:05 | 2:59 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:58 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:21 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:24 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 3:02 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:26 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 2:57 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:45 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:50 | 3:06 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 1:25 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:32 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 59:32 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.7, VAN 3.4 | CGY 1, VAN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.0, VAN 28.0 | CGY 29, VAN 32 |
| Win chance | VAN 61% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 6 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.7 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.2 | 3 | 1.00 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.2 | 5 | 1.13 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.2 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 5 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 0.8 | 4 | 0.23 | 2 | 3% | 1 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.