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Game Recap
CGY1
VGK6
VGK beat CGY 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.38 expected goals to 2.49. M. Stone led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Hill stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 0:46VGKM. Marner0.18 xG
- 1st 3:42CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.18 xG
- 1st 5:39VGKT. HertlPP0.25 xG
- 1st 15:03VGKM. Stone0.13 xG
- 2nd 3:57VGKI. Barbashev0.06 xG
- 2nd 19:06VGKM. MarnerPP0.22 xG
- 3rd 2:37VGKM. StonePP0.39 xG
Team Stats
CGYVGK
27Shots on goal28
2.49Expected goals3.38
64Shot attempts53
225v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play3/3
22Hits14
10Blocked shots21
16Penalty minutes16
14Giveaways19
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.49 xGVGK 3.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 3:17 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:15 | 3:19 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:08 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:05 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:09 | 3:16 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 3:16 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:07 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Honzek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:00 | 2:37 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:30 | 1:07 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:01 |
| Z. Parekh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:47 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:08 | 1:45 |
| M. Stone | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:45 |
| M. Marner | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:45 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:45 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 1:45 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 7 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri14:56J. Huberdeau15:18J. Farabee14:34
Line 2C. Zary15:44R. Lomberg12:18A. Klapka12:52
Line 3Y. Sharangovich13:51M. Frost11:45M. Coronato11:53
Line 4M. Backlund11:31B. Coleman13:52S. Honzek12:49
Pair 2J. Bean18:51R. Andersson17:58
VGK
Line 1R. Smith13:58W. Karlsson15:41A. Holtz14:06
Line 2I. Barbashev14:13J. Eichel12:34M. Stone9:17
Line 3T. Hertl14:47M. Marner14:44P. Dorofeyev14:01
Line 4K. Kolesar12:45B. Saad13:38C. Sissons10:59
Pair 1B. McNabb20:53S. Theodore20:28
Pair 2K. Korczak17:23J. Lauzon16:27
Pair 3B. Hutton17:28Z. Whitecloud15:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.6, VGK 3.4 | CGY 1, VGK 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 25.8, VGK 30.5 | CGY 27, VGK 28 |
| Win chance | VGK 63% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 3 | 1.17 | 4 | 34% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 4 | 0.94 | 4 | 27% | 2 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 2.0 | 3 | 1.23 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY S. Honzek | 1.3 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.