CGY beat WPG 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.28 expected goals to 3.94. WPG outshot CGY 39 to 22. B. Coleman led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Scheifele had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Wolf stopped 38 of 39.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.28 xGWPG 3.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:32 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:26 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:32 |
| R. Kerins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:32 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:21 | 1:32 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:57 | 1:37 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 1:37 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:26 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:11 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:34 | 1:37 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:53 | 1:32 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:11 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:09 | 3:19 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:03 | 3:19 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 2:53 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:07 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:38 | 2:25 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:41 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:35 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:41 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:48 | 2:54 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:30 | 1:06 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 57:29 | Loss |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.6, WPG 3.2 | CGY 3, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.9, WPG 29.1 | CGY 22, WPG 39 |
| Win chance | WPG 61% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 3 | 1.06 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 4 | 0.51 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 7 | 0.98 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 1.9 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.2 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. Toninato | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.