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Game Recap
CGY2
WPG5
WPG beat CGY 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 2.15. G. Vilardi led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). E. Comrie stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| WPG | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 5:28WPGK. Connor0.16 xG
- 2nd 10:17WPGM. Appleton0.43 xG
- 2nd 15:08CGYM. WeegarPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 19:09WPGG. Vilardi0.05 xG
- 3rd 3:07WPGG. VilardiPP0.21 xG
- 3rd 4:27CGYN. Kadri0.20 xG
- 3rd 7:08WPGM. ScheifelePP0.15 xG
Team Stats
CGYWPG
22Shots on goal27
2.15Expected goals3.02
53Shot attempts55
175v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play2/2
38Hits32
9Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways13
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 2.15 xGWPG 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 3:43 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:44 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:20 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:55 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 1:55 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 2:25 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 3:42 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:56 | 1:58 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:05 |
| C. Bishop | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:03 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 6:45 | 0:07 |
| M. Weegar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:07 | 3:33 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 21:33 | 2:17 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:08 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Vilardi | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:10 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 1:12 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 1:12 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:11 |
| M. Appleton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:02 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 1:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 1:01 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:15 | 0:46 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 1:26 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.4, WPG 3.3 | CGY 2, WPG 5 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 27.3, WPG 29.7 | CGY 22, WPG 27 |
| Win chance | WPG 66% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 3 | 1.08 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.8 | 4 | 0.77 | 4 | 31% | 2 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.5 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY C. Bishop | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.