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Game Recap
CHI4
Final/OTSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night
BOS5

BOS beat CHI 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.41 expected goals to 3.45. CHI outshot BOS 41 to 32. A. Frondell led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Frondell had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. M. DiPietro stopped 37 of 41.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CHI11204
BOS11215
  1. 1st 6:04CHIA. FrondellPP0.12 xG
  2. 1st 13:05BOSD. Pastrnak0.18 xG
  3. 2nd 3:31CHIA. Frondell0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 12:34BOSC. Mittelstadt0.11 xG
  5. 3rd 9:38CHIR. Greene0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 12:20CHIC. Bedard0.18 xG
  7. 3rd 13:06BOSM. Lohrei0.09 xG
  8. 3rd 19:48BOSM. Geekie0.15 xG
  9. OT 2:32BOSE. Lindholm0.39 xG

Team Stats

CHIBOS
41Shots on goal32
3.45Expected goals3.41
69Shot attempts61
295v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/3
16Hits22
11Blocked shots16
14Penalty minutes24
10Giveaways17
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.45 xGBOS 3.41 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTCHI goal, 6:04BOS goal, 13:05CHI goal, 3:31BOS goal, 12:34CHI goal, 9:38CHI goal, 12:20BOS goal, 13:06BOS goal, 19:48BOS goal, 2:32

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI36 on goal, 4 scored
BOS31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC112610-1222:074:02
A. FrondellC2029100019:153:23
R. KantserovRW0110000018:513:20
P. KaneRW0112100015:113:32
R. DonatoC0110200013:551:03
T. BertuzziLW0111200013:222:49
A. MangiapaneLW0112110212:500:00
R. GreeneC1012000012:380:35
F. NazarC000200-1016:140:46
C. SmithRW000100-2215:020:01
J. GreenwayLW000010-1011:590:01
O. MooreC000221-1010:340:52
S. RinzelD0111000011:390:00
I. ColeD000302-1024:400:09
A. VlasicD000604-1623:150:22
W. KaiserD000122-1222:570:00
A. LevshunovD0001100020:380:00
E. Del MastroD0002210012:290:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Soderblom32275.84462:32OT loss
S. Knight000–0:00

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. PeterkaRW022400+3021:152:02
D. PastrnakRW101411+1024:484:33
P. ZachaC011320+1022:123:16
E. LindholmC101220+2019:443:52
M. GeekieC101330+1216:233:59
C. MittelstadtC1013100014:381:27
J. HagensC0110020013:022:04
T. JeannotLW011221-127:240:00
F. MintenC000030+1216:022:01
M. KhusnutdinovC0001000012:370:00
S. KuralyC000120008:450:00
M. KastelicC000120008:030:00
C. McAvoyD022302+2027:163:56
M. LohreiD101101-1016:592:04
H. LindholmD000102+1021:350:06
W. BorgenD000103+1221:160:00
N. ZadorovD00002301415:020:00
J. AspirotD000221-1213:280:02
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. DiPietro41374.90261:28Win
J. Swayman000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard15:59R. Kantserov13:07R. Donato12:52
Line 2T. Bertuzzi10:33A. Frondell10:32A. Mangiapane10:34
Line 3P. Kane10:13F. Nazar11:25O. Moore9:28
Line 4C. Smith11:13R. Greene9:42J. Greenway9:35
Pair 1I. Cole18:53A. Vlasic16:59
Pair 2W. Kaiser18:04A. Levshunov14:44
Pair 3E. Mastro11:59S. Rinzel11:03

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:01P. Zacha14:55J. Peterka16:29
Line 2E. Lindholm11:45C. Mittelstadt12:25J. Hagens10:58
Line 3F. Minten11:30M. Khusnutdinov9:44M. Geekie11:20
Line 4S. Kuraly7:36M. Kastelic6:55T. Jeannot6:33
Pair 1H. Lindholm17:34C. McAvoy17:12
Pair 2W. Borgen17:20N. Zadorov12:16
Pair 3M. Lohrei13:47J. Aspirot12:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 15 overs hit (73%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5-108+1004Over
CHI C. Bedard2.5-132+1056Over
BOS J. Peterka2.5+140-1554Over
BOS M. Geekie2.5+150-1803Over
CHI A. Frondell1.5-115+1059Over
BOS C. McAvoy1.5-152+1303Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.5+115-1403Over
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-156+1352Over
BOS F. Minten1.5-140+1100Under
CHI F. Nazar1.5-104-1152Over
BOS J. Hagens1.5-154+1300Under
CHI P. Kane1.5-180+1502Over
BOS P. Zacha1.5-160+1303Over
CHI R. Donato1.5+115-1500Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5+115-1351Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownRyan Donato CHI Plays in his hometown1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.5, BOS 3.7CHI 4, BOS 5
Total goals6.29
Shots on goalCHI 24.0, BOS 29.0CHI 41, BOS 32
Win chanceBOS 68%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.641.42143%1
CHI C. Bedard2.960.88228%1
BOS J. Peterka2.340.77230%0
CHI P. Kane2.120.72122%0
CHI R. Kantserov2.000.63125%0
CHI A. Frondell2.090.46216%2
BOS P. Zacha2.030.87128%0
BOS M. Geekie1.930.80130%1
BOS J. Hagens1.900.57119%0
BOS F. Minten1.800.56023%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.820.72125%1
BOS C. McAvoy1.830.83215%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.810.63125%0
CHI R. Donato1.800.45120%0
CHI F. Nazar1.720.43017%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.410.4309%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.410.30012%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.330.59119%1
CHI S. Rinzel1.210.2115%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.200.3308%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.210.2704%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.210.29012%0
CHI A. Mangiapane1.120.30114%0
CHI O. Moore1.120.2709%0
CHI R. Greene1.120.27112%1
CHI J. Greenway1.000.22010%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.010.4019%1
CHI C. Smith1.010.20010%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.060.2404%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.010.2406%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov1.010.39016%0
BOS W. Borgen1.010.2908%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.920.25111%0
BOS J. Aspirot0.920.2605%0
CHI I. Cole0.830.2204%0
CHI E. Mastro0.820.1203%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.