Game Recap: CHI 3, BUF 9, November 21, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI3

FinalFri, Nov 21, 2025Every game that night

BUF9

BUF beat CHI 9-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.14 expected goals to 1.47. BUF outshot CHI 31 to 23. A. Tuch led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). T. Bertuzzi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. U. Luukkonen stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	1	1	3
BUF	3	3	3	9

1st 13:57BUFJ. Doan0.06 xG
1st 15:19BUFJ. Zucker0.17 xG
1st 17:33BUFB. ByramPP0.12 xG
1st 18:12CHIT. Bertuzzi0.31 xG
2nd 5:42BUFR. McLeod0.20 xG
2nd 5:50BUFM. Samuelsson0.02 xG
2nd 14:45CHIA. Vlasic0.03 xG
2nd 17:31BUFJ. Doan0.17 xG
3rd 0:24CHIT. BertuzziPP0.11 xG
3rd 1:56BUFT. Thompson0.24 xG
3rd 7:07BUFJ. Quinn0.13 xG
3rd 16:22BUFJ. Bryson0.30 xG

Team Stats

CHIBUF

23Shots on goal31

1.47Expected goals3.14

49Shot attempts60

205v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play1/2

13Hits19

17Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes4

24Giveaways14

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.47 xGBUF 3.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI22 on goal, 3 scored

BUF31 on goal, 9 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	2	2	1	1	3	+1	2	20:25	3:19
T. Bertuzzi	LW	2	0	2	5	2	0	+1	0	19:17	3:19
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-4	0	19:44	3:19
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:17	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-4	0	20:33	3:19
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	16:05	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	15:11	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	14:52	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-4	0	12:09	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:07	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	-3	0	12:20	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	1	0	1	1	0	4	-3	0	17:18	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:59	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	19:43	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	16:39	3:19
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	16:25	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	22	9	.710	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	0	4	4	1	1	0	+2	0	18:04	1:51
J. Zucker	LW	1	2	3	1	2	0	+3	2	15:25	2:03
R. McLeod	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	17:13	1:51
J. Doan	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	2	16:58	1:48
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	5	2	0	+2	0	16:21	2:02
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	16:09	2:04
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	13:55	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
I. Rosen	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	11:28	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	14:31	2:05
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	13:21	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	12:47	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	23:56	2:30
B. Byram	D	1	1	2	4	0	2	0	0	18:01	1:48
J. Bryson	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	0	14:41	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+3	0	24:33	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-1	0	18:02	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+4	0	18:58	1:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	23	20	3	.870	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard17:06T. Bertuzzi15:58R. Greene17:04

Line 2T. Teravainen15:14F. Nazar14:12O. Moore11:59

Line 3S. Lafferty11:07L. Slaggert11:34C. Dach14:31

Line 4I. Mikheyev14:14R. Donato15:11

Pair 1W. Kaiser18:08A. Levshunov13:20

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk19:59L. Crevier14:33

Pair 3C. Murphy12:31A. Vlasic14:59

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch14:09T. Thompson14:19J. Doan15:10

Line 2J. Zucker13:22J. Quinn14:05R. McLeod13:09

Line 3B. Malenstyn12:38P. Krebs12:47J. Greenway11:13

Line 4T. Kozak13:21N. Ostlund12:26I. Rosen11:28

Pair 1M. Samuelsson22:19R. Dahlin21:26

Pair 2C. Timmins15:46B. Byram15:10

Pair 3O. Power16:31J. Bryson14:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBowen Byram CHI First game back in Buffalo, his team until May 20261 G, 1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.9, BUF 3.7	CHI 3, BUF 9
Total goals	6.6	12
Shots on goal	CHI 25.3, BUF 31.3	CHI 23, BUF 31
Win chance	BUF 62%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.7	5	1.07	2	44%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	1	0.95	2	20%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	1	0.92	2	28%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.5	4	0.59	2	22%	2
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	1	0.84	4	32%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	1	0.64	3	25%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	3	0.69	2	24%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	0	0.64	1	23%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	5	0.68	2	27%	2
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	2	0.49	0	23%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	3	0.58	0	23%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.6	0	0.48	1	19%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	3	0.64	2	22%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.76	0	23%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.46	0	8%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.4	1	0.42	0	18%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.4	0	0.49	0	14%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.4	0	0.32	1	14%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.3	1	0.28	2	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	4	0.54	2	14%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	1	0.34	1	7%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	2	0.37	0	12%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.2	1	0.19	1	8%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.1	1	0.38	1	17%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.1	1	0.40	0	3%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	1	0.33	1	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.25	1	4%	1
BUF T. Kozak	1.0	0	0.31	0	17%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	2	0.28	0	2%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	3	0.24	0	6%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.14	2	2%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.