Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CHI3
FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
BUF4

BUF beat CHI 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 2.31. BUF outshot CHI 28 to 15. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). U. Luukkonen stopped 12 of 15.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI2103
BUF1124
  1. 1st 7:59CHIR. Donato0.20 xG
  2. 1st 11:24CHIT. Bertuzzi0.12 xG
  3. 1st 16:24BUFJ. Quinn0.07 xG
  4. 2nd 5:41BUFT. Thompson0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 18:18CHIO. Moore0.13 xG
  6. 3rd 6:10BUFR. Dahlin0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 13:20BUFJ.Kulich0.20 xG

Team Stats

CHIBUF
15Shots on goal28
2.31Expected goals4.12
37Shot attempts64
135v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/3
18Hits29
11Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways22
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.31 xGBUF 4.12 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCHI goal, 7:59CHI goal, 11:24BUF goal, 16:24BUF goal, 5:41CHI goal, 18:18BUF goal, 6:10BUF goal, 13:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI14 on goal, 3 scored
BUF28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. FrondellC022110+2016:060:50
T. BertuzziLW101120+1016:181:25
T. TeravainenC011101+2014:220:00
O. MooreC101110029:300:41
R. DonatoC101110-109:250:59
N. LardisLW011120-107:410:42
F. NazarC000201-2019:581:01
P. KaneRW000000-2219:011:19
R. KantserovRW000020-1018:481:18
J. GreenwayLW0002010015:550:00
R. GreeneC0000000015:360:00
C. SmithRW0000300215:090:06
A. VlasicD022010+3022:330:07
A. LevshunovD000202-1024:401:48
W. KaiserD000022-2022:580:00
I. ColeD000112+2020:370:07
E. Del MastroD000022-2015:010:00
K. KorchinskiD000200-2011:210:12
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight28244.85759:01Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ThompsonC112421+2019:412:33
J. QuinnRW101511+1019:072:32
J. NorrisC0111200016:321:31
P. KrebsC011100-1013:420:00
J.KulichC101110+2013:310:00
Z. BensonLW000130+1219:332:33
J. DoanRW000122+1218:062:32
N. OstlundC0002000017:231:33
K. HeleniusC000320-2014:391:36
R. McLeodC000100-3012:021:37
B. MalenstynLW000060008:310:00
S. CarrickC000120007:200:00
R. DahlinD101340+1025:232:21
O. PowerD011111-2025:121:46
M. SamuelssonD0111220024:110:01
L. CrevierD011110+2017:080:00
Z. MetsaD011001+208:280:00
O. ZellwegerD0001000015:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
U. Luukkonen15123.80060:00Win
C. Ellis000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1P. Kane15:21R. Kantserov16:29F. Nazar15:49
Line 2J. Greenway15:01R. Greene14:32C. Smith13:17
Line 3T. Bertuzzi13:26A. Frondell12:31T. Teravainen12:35
Line 4R. Donato7:49O. Moore8:49N. Lardis6:59
Pair 1I. Cole17:51A. Vlasic20:03
Pair 2A. Levshunov18:58W. Kaiser19:32
Pair 3E. Mastro14:56K. Korchinski10:32

BUF

Line 1J. Quinn15:48Z. Benson16:28N. Ostlund15:12
Line 2T. Thompson15:46J. Doan15:34J. Norris14:31
Line 3P. Krebs12:43K. Helenius12:13R. McLeod8:56
Line 4S. Carrick7:20B. Malenstyn7:03J.Kulich11:10
Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:53R. Dahlin21:51
Pair 2O. Power20:43O. Zellweger14:42
Pair 3L. Crevier15:03Z. Metsa7:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 19 overs hit (37%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BUF T. Thompson3.5-110-1204Over
CHI A. Frondell2.5+135-1501Under
BUF J. Doan2.5+136-1601Under
BUF J. Quinn2.5-105-1205Over
CHI P. Kane2.5+106-1250Under
BUF R. Dahlin2.5-110-1153Over
CHI A. Levshunov1.5+105-1352Over
CHI F. Nazar1.5-160+1252Over
BUF J. Norris1.5-115-1151Under
BUF J.Kulich1.5-105-1151Under
BUF K. Helenius1.5-135+1153Over
BUF L. Crevier1.5-105-1301Under
BUF N. Ostlund1.5+105-1402Over
CHI O. Moore1.5+125-1651Under
BUF O. Power1.5+100-1351Under
BUF P. Krebs1.5+150-2051Under
BUF R. McLeod1.5+125-1701Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5-135+1201Under
BUF Z. Benson1.5-150+1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.7, BUF 3.9CHI 3, BUF 4
Total goals6.67
Shots on goalCHI 23.8, BUF 31.9CHI 15, BUF 28
Win chanceBUF 69%BUF won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.641.10241%1
BUF R. Dahlin2.831.03123%1
BUF J. Quinn2.750.74124%1
CHI A. Frondell2.510.53218%0
CHI P. Kane2.500.81024%0
BUF J. Doan2.410.73026%0
BUF Z. Benson2.310.74022%0
BUF K. Helenius2.130.51019%0
BUF J.Kulich2.010.42120%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.910.61126%1
BUF J. Norris1.810.70129%0
CHI F. Nazar1.820.50019%0
BUF O. Power1.510.52110%0
CHI R. Donato1.510.40118%1
BUF L. Crevier1.410.3219%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.410.47112%0
CHI N. Lardis1.410.33117%0
CHI R. Greene1.300.34014%0
BUF R. McLeod1.310.65018%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.210.2708%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.220.3003%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.210.48117%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.120.49016%0
BUF P. Krebs1.110.45113%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.000.2206%0
CHI O. Moore1.010.2919%1
CHI A. Vlasic1.000.2323%0
BUF S. Carrick0.910.2009%0
CHI J. Greenway0.920.2209%0
CHI C. Smith0.900.1909%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.800.1807%0
CHI K. Korchinski0.820.1404%0
CHI E. Mastro0.800.1404%0
CHI I. Cole0.710.2003%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.700.2017%0

Shots on goal: 27 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.