Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CHI2
FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
CAR9

CAR beat CHI 9-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.47 expected goals to 1.86. CAR outshot CHI 33 to 20. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI0022
CAR4329
  1. 1st 1:34CARS. Jarvis0.25 xG
  2. 1st 3:21CARJ. Blake0.13 xG
  3. 1st 10:54CARJ. Martinook0.14 xG
  4. 1st 19:27CARJ. Martinook0.33 xG
  5. 2nd 4:43CARA. Svechnikov0.05 xG
  6. 2nd 10:36CARS. Aho0.18 xG
  7. 2nd 18:06CARA. Nikishin0.03 xG
  8. 3rd 5:56CHIR. Kantserov0.21 xG
  9. 3rd 13:41CHIC. Bedard0.32 xG
  10. 3rd 16:18CARS. Gostisbehere0.03 xG
  11. 3rd 19:47CARA. Svechnikov0.18 xG

Team Stats

CHICAR
20Shots on goal33
1.86Expected goals4.47
41Shot attempts57
205v5 shots on goal32
0/0Power play0/1
22Hits8
9Blocked shots13
2Penalty minutes0
19Giveaways6
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.86 xGCAR 4.47 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCAR goal, 1:34CAR goal, 3:21CAR goal, 10:54CAR goal, 19:27CAR goal, 4:43CAR goal, 10:36CAR goal, 18:06CHI goal, 5:56CHI goal, 13:41CAR goal, 16:18CAR goal, 19:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI20 on goal, 2 scored
CAR32 on goal, 9 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC112122-1017:220:00
R. KantserovRW101200-1016:550:00
R. GreeneC0001200017:310:00
T. BertuzziLW000100-1017:300:00
T. TeravainenC0001000016:240:00
F. NazarC000220-4216:040:00
A. FrondellC000000-2015:160:00
R. DonatoC000120-2014:520:00
O. MooreC000020-4013:350:00
C. SmithRW000120-3012:290:00
J. GreenwayLW000150-2010:290:00
D. BoucherLW000210-109:270:00
A. VlasicD0220220021:230:00
I. ColeD000201-1021:380:00
S. RinzelD0001120021:230:00
W. KaiserD000100-6020:440:00
A. LevshunovD000111-6018:460:00
K. KorchinskiD000201-1016:120:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight17116.64730:36Loss
A. Soderblom16133.81329:24

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC123111+4014:540:00
E. RobinsonLW022100+3016:451:04
A. SvechnikovRW202520+4015:430:00
J. MartinookLW202301+3014:251:15
J. KotkaniemiC022300+2014:252:00
W. CarrierLW022221+209:250:00
J. BlakeRW1012000017:350:45
T. HallLW011301+1016:130:00
L. StankovenC011001+1015:500:00
N. EhlersLW0111000015:430:56
S. JarvisRW101200+1014:060:00
M. JankowskiLW0003110014:500:00
S. GostisbehereD112300+3020:331:21
A. NikishinD112102+3020:211:16
K. MillerD011121+4021:520:44
S. WalkerD011102+4019:540:39
J. SlavinD0001020019:290:00
J. ChatfieldD0000000017:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov20182.90060:00Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi17:30C. Bedard17:22R. Kantserov16:55
Line 2T. Teravainen15:39R. Greene16:28R. Donato14:52
Line 3F. Nazar16:04O. Moore13:35A. Frondell14:21
Line 4C. Smith11:59J. Greenway9:44D. Boucher9:27
Pair 1I. Cole20:33K. Korchinski16:12
Pair 2A. Vlasic20:21S. Rinzel21:23
Pair 3A. Levshunov17:48W. Kaiser19:47

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:54A. Svechnikov15:43W. Carrier9:25
Line 2L. Stankoven15:50J. Blake16:50N. Ehlers14:47
Line 3M. Jankowski14:50S. Jarvis14:06T. Hall16:13
Line 4J. Martinook13:10J. Kotkaniemi12:25E. Robinson15:41
Pair 1K. Miller21:08S. Walker19:15
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere19:12A. Nikishin19:05
Pair 3J. Slavin19:29J. Chatfield17:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 23 overs hit (35%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5-115-1025Over
CHI C. Bedard2.5-115-1081Under
CAR J. Blake2.5+105-1182Under
CAR L. Stankoven2.5-107-1150Under
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+105-1151Under
CAR S. Aho2.5-118-1101Under
CAR S. Jarvis2.5+120-1482Under
CHI A. Frondell1.5-140+1250Under
CAR E. Robinson1.5+100–1Under
CHI F. Nazar1.5-114-1102Over
CAR J. Chatfield1.5+110–0Under
CAR J. Martinook1.5-150–3Over
CAR J. Slavin1.5-105-1101Under
CAR K. Miller1.5+130–1Under
CAR M. Jankowski1.5-114-1103Over
CHI R. Donato1.5+105–1Under
CHI R. Kantserov1.5-120-1052Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-110-1103Over
CAR S. Walker1.5-138+1201Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.5+155-1821Under
CAR T. Hall1.5-180+1433Over
CHI T. Teravainen1.5+125–1Under
CAR W. Carrier1.5+110-1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamTaylor Hall CAR Faces CHI, his team until Jan 20251 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.3, CAR 4.0CHI 2, CAR 9
Total goals6.311
Shots on goalCHI 20.3, CAR 34.9CHI 20, CAR 33
Win chanceCAR 76%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR S. Aho2.711.11335%1
CAR A. Svechnikov2.750.91232%2
CHI C. Bedard2.610.87228%1
CAR S. Jarvis2.520.84131%1
CAR L. Stankoven2.500.71129%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.510.89128%0
CAR J. Blake2.520.91129%1
CHI A. Frondell2.000.54020%0
CAR S. Walker1.910.40111%0
CAR T. Hall1.830.57120%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.730.73215%1
CHI R. Kantserov1.720.59122%1
CAR J. Slavin1.610.3708%0
CHI F. Nazar1.620.49021%0
CAR W. Carrier1.620.40215%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.510.57024%0
CAR M. Jankowski1.530.49022%0
CAR J. Martinook1.530.40215%2
CAR J. Chatfield1.500.3308%0
CAR K. Miller1.410.4519%0
CAR E. Robinson1.410.35214%0
CHI O. Moore1.300.31011%0
CHI R. Donato1.210.35015%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.230.35212%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.010.2306%0
CAR A. Nikishin1.010.2827%1
CHI R. Greene1.010.27012%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.010.2505%0
CHI C. Smith0.910.20010%0
CHI J. Greenway0.910.1908%0
CHI T. Teravainen0.910.36012%0
CHI A. Vlasic0.800.2023%0
CHI W. Kaiser0.810.2005%0
CHI I. Cole0.620.1703%0
CHI K. Korchinski0.520.0902%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.