Game Recap: CHI 0, CBJ 4, February 4, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI0

FinalWed, Feb 4, 2026Every game that night

CBJ4

CBJ beat CHI 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.22 expected goals to 2.36. C. Coyle led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Greaves stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	0	0
CBJ	2	1	1	4

1st 4:46CBJZ. Werenski0.02 xG
1st 12:50CBJI. Provorov0.10 xG
2nd 5:17CBJD. Heinen0.14 xG
3rd 15:33CBJS. MonahanEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

CHICBJ

21Shots on goal20

2.36Expected goals3.22

51Shot attempts48

115v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/1

14Hits12

12Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways7

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.36 xGCBJ 3.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI18 on goal, 0 scored

CBJ20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	-2	0	22:07	4:11
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	0	-2	0	20:27	4:12
F. Nazar	C	4	0	1	-2	2	18:11	4:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	-1	0	17:18	4:11
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	16:17	1:03
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	0	-2	0	15:57	0:52
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	0	15:26	1:47
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	0	-1	0	15:07	0:00
R. Donato	C	1	2	0	-1	0	15:05	1:52
N. Foligno	LW	1	3	1	-1	0	11:44	1:48
L. Slaggert	LW	0	1	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	1	0	-1	0	5:31	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	3	2	3	-1	0	25:42	4:26
A. Vlasic	D	1	2	1	-1	0	24:32	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	2	1	0	-3	0	21:52	1:34
C. Murphy	D	2	2	2	-2	0	20:56	0:00
L. Crevier	D	2	0	3	-1	2	18:44	0:04
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	2:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	19	16	3	.842	58:30	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	18:10	0:59
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:35	0:49
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	17:11	1:02
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	2	15:59	1:11
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:53	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	2	14:19	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	15:25	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:17	1:01
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:34	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	11:21	1:06
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:06	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:34	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:45	0:54
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	21:04	1:04
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	22:28	0:54
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+3	0	19:43	0:02
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:17	0:58
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	16:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	21	21	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1I. Mikheyev13:23J. Dickinson14:13R. Donato12:49

Line 2T. Bertuzzi14:28F. Nazar12:20C. Bedard15:38

Line 3O. Moore12:55A. Burakovsky14:22T. Teravainen11:12

Line 4N. Foligno9:47L. Slaggert9:14C. Dach5:22

Pair 1A. Vlasic22:21L. Crevier17:52

Pair 2C. Murphy19:04M. Grzelcyk16:57

Pair 3S. Rinzel18:26W. Kaiser2:07

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment16:37A. Fantilli14:50D. Heinen13:44

Line 2M. Olivier13:52C. Sillinger13:53C. Coyle11:57

Line 3B. Jenner11:23M. Wood9:46I. Lundestrom8:55

Line 4S. Monahan11:00K. Johnson10:15D. Voronkov8:34

Pair 1D. Severson18:17Z. Werenski16:17

Pair 2E. Gudbranson15:15D. Fabbro15:28

Pair 3I. Provorov15:40D. Mateychuk16:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 3.0, CBJ 3.4	CHI 0, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	CHI 25.8, CBJ 30.4	CHI 21, CBJ 20
Win chance	CBJ 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	1.01	1	23%	1
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	1	1.02	0	31%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	1	0.72	1	28%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.3	1	0.78	0	31%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	4	0.64	0	22%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.1	0	0.54	0	23%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.0	1	0.69	1	27%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.51	0	23%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	1	0.67	2	23%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	1	0.38	1	9%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.41	1	14%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.6	3	0.37	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	1	0.49	0	12%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	1	0.50	0	21%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	4	0.57	1	19%	1
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	2	0.25	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.4	0	0.28	0	13%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	3	0.48	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.4	0	0.37	0	17%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	0	0.50	0	16%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	0	0.61	0	20%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	0	0.37	0	12%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	0	0.23	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.23	0	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	0	0.36	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.23	0	7%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	2	0.28	0	3%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.9	3	0.28	1	12%	1
CHI C. Dach	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.8	1	0.28	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.