Game Recap: CHI 2, DAL 4, October 26, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat CHI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.05 expected goals to 3.60. M. Duchene led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Foligno had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	2	2
DAL	1	1	2	4

1st 9:17DALE. Dadonov0.12 xG
2nd 14:42DALJ. Benn0.33 xG
3rd 8:50DALM. DuchenePP0.16 xG
3rd 9:34CHIR. Donato0.18 xG
3rd 14:15CHIC. Bedard0.04 xG
3rd 19:42DALM. DucheneEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

CHIDAL

24Shots on goal30

3.60Expected goals5.05

56Shot attempts67

195v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play1/3

29Hits9

22Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways7

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.60 xGDAL 5.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 2 scored

DAL30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Maroon	LW	0	2	2	0	5	0	0	0	14:03	1:37
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:17	3:41
C. Smith	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:22	1:27
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:26	3:25
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:53	3:29
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	5	5	0	-1	0	17:02	3:29
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:09	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:07	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:58	1:45
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:33	1:35
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	14:33	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	2	24:40	3:32
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	20:52	1:37
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	-2	2	18:40	0:08
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:34	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	17:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	29	26	3	.897	58:23	Loss
D. Commesso	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Duchene	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	17:50	2:00
T. Seguin	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:50	1:55
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:02	1:58
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:01	2:38
E. Dadonov	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:26	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	0	18:01	2:05
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:45	3:08
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:45	3:13
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:31	3:06
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:35	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:03	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:08	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	+1	2	25:02	3:40
T. Harley	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	22:28	1:28
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	2	17:57	0:10
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	19:22	0:19
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:26	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	24	22	2	.917	59:55	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamColin Blackwell DAL Faces CHI, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.2, DAL 3.9	CHI 2, DAL 4
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	CHI 24.1, DAL 32.9	CHI 24, DAL 30
Win chance	DAL 76%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL W. Johnston	3.1	2	0.93	0	36%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	2	1.20	0	40%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	3	0.72	1	22%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.6	2	0.81	1	30%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.4	2	1.04	0	39%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.4	2	0.40	0	9%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.3	2	0.70	1	21%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	3	0.80	2	11%	0
DAL J. Benn	2.1	4	0.89	1	28%	1
DAL M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.73	0	26%	0
DAL M. Duchene	2.0	3	0.85	2	31%	2
CHI T. Teravainen	1.9	1	0.62	0	22%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.9	1	0.46	0	18%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.48	0	20%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.9	5	0.43	0	17%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	1	0.55	1	10%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.7	1	0.55	1	20%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	2	0.30	0	15%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.5	2	0.31	0	15%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.4	3	0.29	1	13%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	1	0.31	1	7%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.3	1	0.24	1	12%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.37	0	13%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.2	2	0.38	0	13%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.29	0	14%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	0	0.25	0	4%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.32	0	13%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	1	0.24	0	9%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.14	0	5%	0
DAL M. Dumba	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.8	0	0.14	1	3%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.7	0	0.19	2	7%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	2	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.20	0	2%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.