DAL beat CHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 2.17. DAL outshot CHI 40 to 26. L. Stankoven led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Harley had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Oettinger stopped 25 of 26.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.17 xGDAL 4.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 18:16 | 3:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 2:59 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 2:47 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:59 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:28 | 1:41 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:10 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:07 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 1:43 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 1:36 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 0:04 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:49 | 1:36 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:48 | 1:35 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:35 | 3:09 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:14 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:12 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 39 | 37 | 2 | .949 | 59:27 | Loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 3:02 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:11 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:42 | 2:27 |
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 3:04 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:28 | 2:40 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:36 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:32 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 3:13 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:45 | 3:12 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:10 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:08 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:13 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:03 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25:23 | 3:04 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:35 | 2:45 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 59:28 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.2, DAL 3.9 | CHI 1, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 24.0, DAL 32.9 | CHI 26, DAL 40 |
| Win chance | DAL 75% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 3.0 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 2 | 1.12 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 6 | 0.70 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.94 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.1 | 6 | 0.85 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.1 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.8 | 5 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 6 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Anderson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.