Game Recap: CHI 4, DAL 3 (SO), December 27, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI4

Final/SOSat, Dec 27, 2025Every game that night

DAL3

CHI beat DAL 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.45 expected goals to 5.07. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Rantanen had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Soderblom stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	1	1	1	1	4
DAL	1	1	1	0	3

1st 3:20CHIT. Bertuzzi0.13 xG
1st 11:31DALN. Lundkvist0.02 xG
2nd 10:37CHIJ. Dickinson0.04 xG
2nd 11:32DALJ. Hryckowian0.30 xG
3rd 11:18DALM. Rantanen0.23 xG
3rd 12:25CHIT. Bertuzzi0.26 xG

Team Stats

CHIDAL

33Shots on goal31

2.45Expected goals5.07

54Shot attempts61

265v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/4

29Hits16

13Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways18

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.45 xGDAL 5.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI30 on goal, 3 scored

DAL31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	2	0	2	3	2	1	+2	0	20:08	3:23
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+3	0	17:55	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	1	1	3	5	0	+2	0	14:53	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	21:05	3:23
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:34	3:23
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:45	3:23
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:45	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	11:58	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:09	0:00
D. Toninato	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:31	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	10:26	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	10:16	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	2	2	0	1	2	+1	0	25:45	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	23:10	3:23
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	2	16:56	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	-1	0	20:03	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	18:12	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	28	3	.903	65:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	3	3	2	0	1	+2	0	21:18	4:47
M. Rantanen	RW	1	2	3	8	0	1	+2	0	21:07	5:36
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:42	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	21:56	5:40
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:26	4:32
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:04	2:51
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:38	2:28
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	2	15:32	1:40
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:07	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:57	0:02
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:59	0:03
N. Lundkvist	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	16:44	0:04
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	28:39	4:47
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+2	0	25:06	2:36
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	23:19	1:41
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:55	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	12:34	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	33	30	3	.909	65:00	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky15:24R. Donato15:12T. Teravainen11:53

Line 2J. Dickinson13:02T. Bertuzzi16:45L. Slaggert11:37

Line 3D. Toninato10:31S. Lafferty10:49N. Lardis9:43

Line 4R. Greene10:42C. Dach11:09O. Moore9:07

Pair 1A. Vlasic20:07L. Crevier15:54

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk14:55A. Levshunov17:35

Pair 3C. Murphy14:26W. Kaiser14:14

DAL

Line 1S. Steel13:26W. Johnston14:26M. Rantanen13:02

Line 2J. Benn13:52M. Duchene13:34J. Hryckowian11:36

Line 3R. Hintz12:27J. Robertson14:37M. Bourque13:10

Line 4N. Bastian8:56O. Bäck8:38R. Faksa8:20

Pair 1E. Lindell18:16M. Heiskanen17:13

Pair 2T. Harley20:08N. Lundkvist16:03

Pair 3A. Petrovic12:55K. Capobianco12:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, DAL 3.3	CHI 4, DAL 3
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	CHI 24.5, DAL 27.6	CHI 33, DAL 31
Win chance	DAL 64%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.3	2	1.13	0	39%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.4	8	1.15	3	35%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	2	0.89	3	33%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.3	2	0.86	0	15%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	1	0.90	0	32%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	3	0.61	2	25%	2
CHI R. Donato	1.9	2	0.50	0	21%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.8	0	0.39	0	16%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	1	0.61	0	19%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.6	3	0.56	0	14%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	4	0.54	0	19%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.4	3	0.63	0	23%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.4	4	0.36	1	3%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	1	0.36	0	14%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	2	0.20	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	1	0.27	1	6%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	4	0.56	0	19%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	0	0.42	0	10%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.30	1	14%	1
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.2	1	0.29	0	3%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	2	0.37	1	14%	1
DAL A. Petrovic	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.18	0	5%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.1	1	0.31	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.34	1	12%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.1	2	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	1	0.14	1	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.18	2	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	1	0.34	0	10%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.8	1	0.21	0	6%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.28	0	10%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.7	3	0.14	1	6%	0
CHI D. Toninato	0.6	3	0.17	0	7%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.6	2	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.