Game Recap: CHI 3, DAL 4 (OT), March 8, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI3

Final/OTSun, Mar 8, 2026Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 1.92. DAL outshot CHI 31 to 19. M. Bourque led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Heiskanen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. DeSmith stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CHI	2	0	1	0	3
DAL	1	0	2	1	4

1st 6:59CHIT. Bertuzzi0.06 xG
1st 8:41CHIS. Rinzel0.17 xG
1st 16:40DALN. Bastian0.08 xG
3rd 0:42DALM. Bourque0.14 xG
3rd 9:40DALJ. HryckowianPP0.25 xG
3rd 18:40CHIC. Bedard0.03 xG
OT 0:22DALM. Heiskanen0.09 xG

Team Stats

CHIDAL

19Shots on goal31

1.92Expected goals3.69

38Shot attempts64

145v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play1/3

10Hits27

22Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways13

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.92 xGDAL 3.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI19 on goal, 3 scored

DAL31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	0	2	2	3	0	3	+1	0	18:48	2:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+3	0	18:22	2:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	0	20:19	2:00
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	19:33	2:00
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	1:49	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	18:34	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:27	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:30	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:09	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:11	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:24	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:08	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	22:20	1:58
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	18:00	0:02
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	23:03	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	20:25	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	2	19:28	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	31	27	4	.871	59:56	OT loss
D. Commesso	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Bourque	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	17:20	1:44
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:48	4:01
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:43	1:53
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	14:28	1:50
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:36	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	19:55	4:44
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	19:20	4:07
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:16	3:58
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:32	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	11:38	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	24:26	4:10
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	0	0	23:23	1:07
L. Bichsel	D	0	1	1	0	5	0	-1	0	13:45	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	23:18	1:41
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:47	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	13:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	19	16	3	.842	59:32	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky14:49C. Bedard16:14R. Greene15:41

Line 2T. Teravainen12:47T. Bertuzzi17:53F. Nazar14:53

Line 3I. Mikheyev14:16A. Mangiapane12:11R. Donato13:24

Line 4L. Slaggert8:24N. Lardis9:47

Pair 1A. Vlasic18:22L. Crevier16:56

Pair 2S. Rinzel18:47W. Kaiser17:37

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk15:11A. Levshunov15:24

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson13:59W. Johnston13:57M. Bourque14:46

Line 2M. Duchene14:09S. Steel14:16J. Benn12:52

Line 3M. Bunting12:49J. Hryckowian11:55A. Erne11:38

Line 4N. Bastian11:32O. Bäck10:51C. Blackwell9:49

Pair 1E. Lindell19:26M. Heiskanen18:21

Pair 2N. Lundkvist17:47T. Harley20:21

Pair 3T. Myers12:39L. Bichsel13:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamColin Blackwell DAL Faces CHI, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.3, DAL 3.5	CHI 3, DAL 4
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	CHI 21.9, DAL 27.7	CHI 19, DAL 31
Win chance	DAL 68%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.3	2	1.18	0	40%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	3	0.88	1	27%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	2	0.94	0	36%	0
DAL M. Bourque	2.1	3	0.55	2	21%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	5	0.81	1	14%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	3	0.57	2	19%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.9	1	0.52	1	21%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.9	2	0.36	1	6%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	2	0.62	1	25%	1
DAL T. Harley	1.8	2	0.61	0	15%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	2	0.80	1	27%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	0	0.65	0	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	0	0.40	0	18%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	1	0.19	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.4	0	0.29	0	7%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.3	0	0.28	0	14%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.3	2	0.27	0	6%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.3	1	0.47	0	14%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	2	0.57	2	20%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.3	1	0.40	0	17%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.34	1	5%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.2	1	0.44	0	15%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	4	0.47	1	18%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.39	1	9%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.0	0	0.31	1	9%	0
DAL A. Erne	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	0	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	1	0.15	0	5%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	1	0.17	0	8%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	2	0.20	1	11%	1
CHI A. Mangiapane	0.8	1	0.23	0	11%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.21	1	9%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.20	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.